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Something weird is brewing, but what?
Podcast 28 minutes to read
Summary: Today, we run down some of the odd factors in this market that are keeping us on the edge of our seat that something weird, and possibly ominous, is brewing, if disguised by the wall of retail, passive and corporate buyback bids in this market. We also talk incoming earnings and strong reactions to those, macro and FX and today's latest batch of must reads and listens. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.
Today’s links
Head over to polymarket.com if you aren’t familiar with it - not to encourage betting on outcomes, but often you get a sense of how the market is hedging key outcomes. Note the 2028 US Presidential Election odds, which I think under-appreciate the Rubio vs. JD Vance potential, as noted on the podcast.
If you are interested in the likely short-list of Fed Chair candidates to replace Powell, one or more of whom may be appointed to the Fed Board of Governors as soon as today or tomorrow, have a look at Fortune’s rundown.
There are whole swathes of the US economy that have been suffering for years, and it isn’t getting better. Have a listen to the Invest like the Best podcast featuring apparently a rare guest Andrew Milgram of Marblegate on the K-shaped economy. I take a stab at what this indicates in the big picture a bit more than what you will hear on this pod.
If you want to balance out your enthusiasm for everything AI and Mag7, there’s no on like Cory Doctorow to throw some shade - in this post on his pluralistic blog, he looks at “AI disservice”, or how and why we are getting lousy customer service expriences driven by AI.
Chart of the Day - S&P 500 equal weight ETF
As represented by the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF, worth noting as I do on today’s Saxo Market Call podcast, that the equal weight S&P 500 index is under-performing the standard, market-cap weighted S&P 500, a sign of declining breadth as the equal-weight has failed to achieve a new all-time high and locally has not rebounded as vigorously as the standard S&P 500. Note the 180.00 are on this chart, too, as key support.
Questions and comments, please!
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