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Morning Brew August 22 2024
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Waiting for Harris and Powell
Good morning,
The Fed Minutes as well as the Jobs data revision by the BLS were dovish yesterday, letting equities rise The BLS payrolls were revised lower by 818k, suggesting job growth was not as strong as previously reported in the period between April 2023 and March 2024. On average, the monthly job growth was178k instead of 246k initially reported.
Indexes rose, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 55.5 points, or 0.15%, to 40,89, the S&P 500 gained 23.7 points, or 0.4%, to 5,621 and the Nasdaq Composite 102. points, or 0.6%, to 17,919. Target and TJX rose by 11.2% and 6.1%, Macy`s fell by 13% on strong and weak outlooks respectively. Overall volumes were low at below 10 bio. Tech traded friendly but with relatively small moves.
Yields and USD Index remain low at 3.8 and 101.23 with EURUSD 1.1145, GBPUSD 1.3080 and USDJPY 145.30. Gold and Silver are at 2505 and 29.50, Bitcoin and Ethereum are 60870 and 2622. Oil is looking for the strategic direction as Kim points out, ole looks at the fundamentals
Today, international PMI will be closely watched, the initial jobless claims and EU Consumer Confidence will only excite traders if they deviate significantly, most important will be the speech by Kamala Harris. So far the DNC has been quite convincing and her performance will be key to shift the needle in the next polls.
The really big thing will be the speech by Jerome Powell tomorrow afternoon to give guidance on the Feds line of thought after the recent data releases and the market turmoil, I expect decent moves by Monday
Our Strats put out two key articles yesterday: Charu took a look at the US Dollar`s weakness: US Dollar: Excessive Weakness or More to Come? Althea wrote a great piece on the importance of US Bond Auctions and how tho reat them : Understanding U.S. Treasury Auctions: What You Need to Know
Trade safely!!
Thursday
- Data International PMI, US Initial Jobless claims, EU Consumer Confidence,
- Earnings: Intuit, Workday
Speakers: Jackson Hole Summit kicks off
Friday
- Data Japan CIP Canada Retail Sales, US New Home Sales
- Earnings: China Construction Bank, China Petroleum
- Speakers: 16:00 Powell speaks at Jackson Hole