Morning Brew August 20 2025

Showing Nerves

We saw a volatile session yesterday with a wide range of market moves:

• Equities:
  Palantir dropped nearly 10%, Nvidia fell 3.5%.

  • Intel bucked the trend, gaining 7%, while Home Depot rose 3.2%.
  • Rheinmetall declined 4.3% to €1,568.
  • The GER40 hovered around 24,300.
  • In the U.S., the Dow was largely unchanged, the S&P 500 closed down 0.6%, and the Nasdaq lost 1.5%.

• FX, Commodities & Crypto:

  • Gold is at $3,320, and Silver fell 2% to now  $37.20.
  • Bitcoin is down nearly 9% over the past few days, and Ethereum has dropped 13%.
•  
  • Yields were little changed.
  • The USD Index strengthened to 98.30.
  • EUR/USD is at 1.1640, GBP/USD at 1.3485, and USD/JPY at 147.40.

Market Sentiment

Traders appear increasingly nervous ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday. While recent employment data gives the Fed some room to consider rate cuts, last week’s hotter-than-expected inflation print complicates the picture.

The ongoing tension between Donald Trump and Powell continues to make headlines. According to Reuters, Trump accused Powell of “hurting” the housing industry “very badly” and reiterated his call for a significant rate cut. We’re also approaching the 5-year Fed policy review, adding another layer of anticipation.

Analyst Insights

• Ole was right to anticipate movement in precious metals—gold and silver remain range-bound, awaiting a catalyst.
• John previewed FX markets ahead of Jackson Hole: “Breaking out the popcorn for Powell’s speech.”

The key question: Will risk sentiment survive the week? Powell’s Friday speech is likely to be the tipping point. In the meantime, today’s highlights include EU inflation data, the Fed minutes, and Target’s earnings.

In Other News

• Donald Trump ruled out deploying U.S. troops to Ukraine but said air support could be part of a peace deal.
• Japan’s exports saw their steepest monthly drop in nearly four years in July.
• The U.S. Commerce Department announced increased tariffs on over 400 steel and aluminum products.
• According to unconfirmed reports, Goldman Sachs expects the Bureau of Labor Statistics to revise hiring numbers down by 550k to 950k, with the revision due on September 9th.

Wednesday August 20

• Japan Machine Orders, Trade Balance
• China Rate dicision
• UK CPI,
• EU HICP
• Fed Meeting Minutes

  Earnigns: Target, BBVA

  Thursday August 21

• Global PMI
• US Initial Jobless Claims
• EU Consumer confidence

  Earnigns:Walmart Zoom Workday Intuit

  Friday 22 August 22

• Germany GDP
• UK Retail Sales