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Morning Brew April 27 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Banks and weak USD In focus
Good Morning,
The tech sector could rise yesterday on good earnings. Microsoft gained 7%, Amazon 2.3%, Snowflake 8.5%. Alphabet and Tesla were the outliers, Tesla closed additional 4% lower now at 153.75 USD and Alphabet ended just in the red despite a share buy back of USD 50 billion
First Republic Bank came under severe pressure yesterday, Market Cap fell below 1 bio USD as more than 100 billion in deposits was withdrawn. The stock lost app. 30%. According to Reuters, the speed in which regional banks came under pressure is forcing the Fed as well as the FDIC to review their toolkit.
S&P 500 and the Dow Jones ended the day slightly lower while the Nasdaq could gain 0.5%.
In FX the key event yesterday was a statement by Stanley Druckenmiller , a billionaire investor that his only conviction trade at the moment was to be short US Dollar. The Dollar Index is at 101.33, key support remains he 100.80. EURUSD are 1.1070, GBPUSD 1.2475 and USDJPY 133.65.
Gold is 2000 and Silver 25.08. Bitcoin gained on the renewed banking woes and is above 29k.
The Turkish Lira could be interesting today as there were rumors about President Erdogan having health issues and the central bank is expected to cut rates again today.
For next weeks rate decisions, the fed is seen to hike 25 bps with 75% probability and 25% for no action, the ECB is 75% in favor of 25 Basis point hike and the 25% for 50 basis points. In the US, the year end rate is 40 basis points below the current level, the ECB is seen to end the year 75 basis points above the current level.
Meta could beat expectations and Mark Zuckerberg said that AI was helping the company boost traffic to Facebook and Instagram. Meta gained 12% in the aftermarket to trade at 233, Deutsche Bank beat expectations this morning, stocks are indicated higher at Lang und Schwarz.
Amazon Earnings and the US GDP will be the key releases today but the US Banking crisis will be in the forefront of attention.
Thursday
Economic Data:
Sweden GDP,
EU Consumer Confidence
Turkey Rate Decision
US GDP Advance, Initial Jobless claims
Earnings: American Airlines, Caterpillar, Mastercard, Merck ,Amazon, Intel, Pinterest, Gilead, Amgen,
Friday
Economic Data:
Swiss KOF
Germany Unemployment, GDP
EU GDP
US PCE, University of Michigan,
Canada GDP
Earnings:
ExxonMobile, Colgate,Cameco,