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Morning Brew July 27 2021
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Beware of complacency
Good Morning,
heading towards the end of the week and into the Jackson Hole conference, there seems to be a good deal of complacency. Equities hover near all-time highs and volatility expectations in equities as well as FX near lows. US Indexes gained minutely (Dow +0.11%, S&P 500 +0.22% and the NASDAQ +0.15%) at fairly low volumes.
The 10 Year Rates are at the higher end of the range at 1.3350, the USD Index meanders the 93 and Bitcoin remains near 50k at 47000 . EURUSD trades 1.1760, Gold 1785 and Silver 23.70.
German Consumer Confidence fell more than expected to -1.2 vs 0.7 expected, this weighs on the dax a little.
Today the second estimate of the US GDP will be released as well as the Initial Jobless claims, unless there is a surprise, the focus will be on Jackson Hole – even though is seems only few traders seem to expect any significant moves anymore.
Moving the event to virtual and the fact citations of the delta variant seem to hint at a less hawkish event than feared and it seems that most market participants are confident there will be no “Taper Tantrum” but IF there is tapering on the horizon, it will be carefully managed.
Nevertheless, be cautions and be ready should the expectation be false.
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll |
26 Aug 2021 | 08:45 | France | Business Climate Mfg | Aug | 109 |
26 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | GDP 2nd Estimate | Q2 | 6.7% |
26 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Initial Jobless Clm | 21 Aug, w/e | 350k |
27 Aug 2021 | 01:30 | Japan | CPI, Overall Tokyo | Aug | |
27 Aug 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Retail Sales MM | Jul | -2.9% |
27 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | MM | Jul | 0.3% |
27 Aug 2021 | 16:00 | United States | U Mich Sentiment Final | Aug | 70.9 |
(Refinitiv)