Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew July 27 2021

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Beware of complacency


Good Morning,

heading towards the end of the week and into the Jackson Hole conference, there seems to be a good deal of complacency. Equities hover near all-time highs and volatility expectations in equities as well as FX near lows. US Indexes gained minutely (Dow +0.11%, S&P 500 +0.22% and the NASDAQ +0.15%) at fairly low volumes.

The 10 Year Rates are at the higher end of the range at 1.3350, the USD Index meanders the 93 and Bitcoin remains near 50k at 47000 . EURUSD trades 1.1760, Gold 1785 and Silver 23.70.

German Consumer Confidence fell more than expected to -1.2 vs 0.7 expected, this weighs on the dax a little.

Today the second estimate of the US GDP will be released as well as the Initial Jobless claims, unless there is a surprise, the focus will be on Jackson Hole – even though is seems only few traders seem to expect any significant moves anymore.

Moving the event to virtual and the fact citations of the delta variant seem to hint at a less hawkish event than feared and it seems that most market participants are confident there will be no “Taper Tantrum” but IF there is tapering on the horizon, it will be carefully managed.

Nevertheless, be cautions and be ready should the expectation be false.

Local Start Date

Local Time

Country/Region

Indicator Name

Period

Reuters Poll

26 Aug 2021

08:45

France

Business Climate Mfg

Aug

109

26 Aug 2021

14:30

United States

GDP 2nd Estimate

Q2

6.7%

26 Aug 2021

14:30

United States

Initial Jobless Clm

21 Aug, w/e

350k

27 Aug 2021

01:30

Japan

CPI, Overall Tokyo

Aug

27 Aug 2021

03:30

Australia

Retail Sales MM

Jul

-2.9%

27 Aug 2021

14:30

United States

MM

Jul

0.3%

27 Aug 2021

16:00

United States

U Mich Sentiment Final

Aug

70.9

(Refinitiv)

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