The AI trade: investing in the age of intelligence

Key points:

Artificial intelligence is no longer a promise of tomorrow, it’s the power source of today’s economy.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is no longer just a buzzword or a futuristic concept. It’s here, woven into everyday life, from the emails we write and the photos we tag to the logistics routes that power global trade. What was once a niche field in computer science has become the backbone of the modern economy.

And it’s moving fast. AI has leapt from the research lab into the boardroom, the factory floor, and the smartphone in your pocket. Every major industry, from healthcare and manufacturing to finance and retail, is now experimenting with or scaling AI tools to improve productivity, decision-making and customer experience.

That’s why investors are paying attention. The question is no longer whether AI will reshape the world economy, but how to gain meaningful exposure to its growth.

Why AI matters now

The current wave of AI adoption is unlike anything seen before.

It’s driven by three reinforcing forces: exploding compute demand, rapid enterprise integration, and an unprecedented investment cycle in digital infrastructure.

Global spending on AI hardware and data centres is entering trillion-dollar territory, with the world’s largest technology companies racing to expand capacity to meet surging demand for AI training and inference. Enterprises are embedding AI copilots into productivity software, customer service, and analytics. Meanwhile, consumers are using AI in ways they don’t even notice, from smarter search to personalised shopping recommendations.

This convergence means AI is no longer a speculative bet but a fundamental productivity tool. Economists now see it as a driver of the next efficiency wave, potentially adding several percentage points to global GDP growth over the coming decade.

For investors, that shift creates both opportunities and challenges. AI is broad, complex and evolves fast, making it difficult to know where to start.

Inside the AI value chain

To understand where the investment potential lies, it helps to view AI as a value chain, a layered ecosystem stretching from hardware and infrastructure to software and applications.

At the foundation are chipmakers and semiconductor equipment suppliers, producing the GPUs and advanced components that make AI possible. Above them sit the cloud providers and enterprise software companies that train and deploy models. And finally, the consumer platforms integrate AI into products millions of people use daily.

Each layer captures a different part of the AI economy, and together they illustrate how diverse and interconnected the theme is.

The result is a complex network of dependencies: one company’s breakthrough in chip design fuels another’s innovation in software, creating a feedback loop of growth.

One-click exposure: the AI Theme ETP

For investors who want exposure to this fast-moving ecosystem without having to pick individual winners, Saxo has introduced a tradable AI Theme ETP.

The basket brings together leading companies across the full AI value chain, from chipmakers like NVIDIA and TSMC to cloud and software players like Microsoft and Salesforce. It’s designed to give investors broad, diversified exposure to the global AI economy in a single, transparent trade.

The composition is rules-based and reviewed regularly to keep it aligned with market developments, making it a simple entry point for thematic investors. AI may feel abstract, but this basket turns the megatrend into something tangible and tradable.

Thematic investing should make complexity simple, one click, one idea, many opportunities.

Inside the basket: the companies powering the AI revolution

The Saxo AI Theme Basket includes some of the companies driving the global AI transformation. Each represents a distinct layer of the value chain, from chip design and manufacturing to software and cloud applications.

• NVIDIA is the undisputed powerhouse of AI computing, designing the chips that train and run large language models. Its dominance in GPU architecture has made it one of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI boom.
• TSMC manufactures the world’s most advanced chips, enabling the high-performance computing that AI depends on. It sits at the heart of the global semiconductor supply chain.
• ASML provides the critical lithography machines used to produce those chips, a technological bottleneck that gives it enormous pricing power and strategic importance.
• Microsoft has embedded AI across its product suite, from Office to Azure, positioning itself as a key enterprise gateway to AI adoption.
• Oracle leverages its cloud and database infrastructure to help companies harness AI in data management and analytics.
• Salesforce integrates AI into customer relationship management tools, turning data into predictive insights for millions of businesses.

Together, these names illustrate the breadth of the AI opportunity, and form the backbone of Saxo’s AI Theme ETP. AI isn’t just a chip story, it’s a supply chain of intelligence stretching across continents.

What to watch next

AI’s story is far from over. Investors should keep an eye on four key indicators to gauge the health and direction of the theme:

1. Infrastructure spending: Track capital expenditure from hyperscalers like Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet. Their data-centre investments signal long-term confidence in AI demand.
2. Chip innovation: New architectures from NVIDIA, AMD and Intel will determine performance gains and market leadership.
3. Enterprise adoption: The pace at which AI copilots and workflow tools are rolled out will show whether companies are realising productivity gains.
4. Regulation and policy: Governments are drafting AI governance frameworks that could influence costs, innovation and public trust.

Staying informed across these developments is essential to capture both opportunity and manage risk.

Key risks

Like all major innovations, AI investing comes with caveats. Valuations in some parts of the market are stretched, reflecting enormous future expectations that may take years to realise. The semiconductor industry remains cyclical, with demand swings tied to global growth and capital expenditure patterns. And while AI’s potential is vast, not every company will execute successfully.

Ethical and regulatory considerations also loom large. Issues such as data privacy, job displacement and AI bias could shape public perception and policymaking, and in turn, the profitability of certain business models.

Prudent investors should view AI as a long-term structural theme rather than a short-term trade.

The long game in AI investing

AI is reshaping the economic landscape, driving what many see as the next industrial revolution, one built not on steel and steam but on data and computation.

For investors, the challenge is to capture this transformation without losing sight of fundamentals. Thematic investing offers a way to do just that, to focus on powerful global trends through diversified exposure.

The Saxo AI Theme ETP is one such gateway, giving investors the chance to participate in the theme that’s defining the decade, while spreading risk across companies that represent the backbone of the AI economy.

As AI continues to evolve, one thing is clear: it’s no longer science fiction. It’s a story unfolding in real time, and for investors, it’s one worth understanding early.