Point de marché - 3 Octobre 2025

Points clés

Actions : Nouveaux records pour les indices américains, mais clôture en retrait par rapport aux plus hauts de la séance.
Volatilité : Légèrement en hausse, au plus haut depuis une semaine malgré un fort appétit pour le risque.
Actifs numériques : Nouvelle envolée cette nuit, partiellement effacée dans le cas de l’Ethereum.
Devises : USD hésitant mais globalement ferme, notamment face au JPY affaibli après les propos prudents de M. Ueda (BoJ) sur le calendrier des hausses de taux.
Matières premières : L’or teste une résistance à 3 900 USD. Forte baisse du pétrole avant la réunion de l’OPEP+.
Obligations : Rendements des Treasuries stables en l’absence de publications US – mais indice ISM Services attendu aujourd’hui.
Événements macro : Discours d’Andrew Bailey (BoE) et de Stephen Miran (Fed). Publication de l’ISM Services de septembre aux États-Unis.

Titres macro

• Deuxième jour de fermeture du gouvernement américain : Donald Trump menace de supprimer des milliers d’emplois fédéraux pour faire pression sur les Démocrates. Cette fermeture entraîne aussi une interruption de diffusion des données, retardant la publication du rapport sur l’emploi de septembre.

• Le gouverneur de la Banque du Japon, Kazuo Ueda, a réaffirmé son prudence quant à une hausse imminente des taux. Il estime préoccupant le retard de publication des données américaines et souligne l’incertitude autour des droits de douane US et de l’évolution de l’inflation alimentaire. Il refuse de s’engager sur une décision dès la réunion d’octobre.

• Les employeurs américains ont annoncé 54 064 suppressions de postes en septembre, un plus bas depuis trois mois et –26 % sur un an, mais portant le total annuel à 946 426, le plus élevé depuis 2020. Les embauches prévues chutent de 71 % sur un an, au plus bas depuis 2011.

• Le taux de chômage de la zone euro remonte à 6,3 % (contre 6,2 % en juillet), au-dessus des attentes. Le nombre de chômeurs progresse de 11 000 à 10,842 millions. Le chômage des jeunes reste à 14 %. Espagne, France et Italie affichent les taux les plus élevés ; Allemagne et Pays-Bas les plus bas.

• La fermeture du gouvernement US entraîne aussi la suspension du rapport hebdomadaire de la CFTC sur les positions spéculatives (COT). Lors du shutdown de 2018-2019, ces données avaient été gelées pendant plus d’un mois.

Agenda macro (heures GMT)

• 08h00 : PMI de septembre (zone euro)

• 12h30 : Rapport sur l’emploi (US)

• 13h35 : Fed – Stephen Miran (Bloomberg TV)

• 13h45 : PMI S&P Global de septembre (US)

• 14h00 : ISM Services de septembre (US)

• 19h30 : Fed – Stephen Miran (Fox Business)

• Autres : Goolsbee (12h30), Logan (17h30), Jefferson (17h40)

Résultats à venir

• Lundi : Constellation Brands

• Jeudi : Pepsico, Progressive Corp., Delta

• Vendredi : BlackRock

(Agenda complet disponible sur le calendrier Saxo)

Actions

• États-Unis : Les grands indices progressent légèrement vers de nouveaux records (S&P 500 +0,1 %, Nasdaq +0,4 %, Dow Jones +0,2 %). Les semi-conducteurs et l’IA tirent le marché à la hausse malgré le bruit du shutdown. Tesla recule après un rebond initial lié aux livraisons ; Coinbase bondit de +7 %. Les valeurs technologiques (Intel, AMD) solides.

• Europe : Le STOXX 600 gagne +0,7 % et signe un record. Les technos (ASML, ASMI) et l’automobile (Stellantis +7 %, Ferrari +3 %) dominent. Santé toujours recherchée.

• Asie : Nikkei +1,7 %, soutenu par la tech (Hitachi en forte hausse). Marchés fermés en Corée (Fête nationale). Chine continentale en congé (Golden Week), Hong Kong plus faible. Australie et Taïwan fermes.

Volatilité

Le VIX grimpe à 16,6, au plus haut en une semaine, malgré les nouveaux records des indices US.

Actifs numériques

• Bitcoin : proche de 120 000 USD, plus haut en plus de deux mois.

• Ethereum : dépasse 4 500 USD avant de retomber sous ce seuil.

Obligations

• US Treasuries : Rendements stables : 2 ans à 3,55 % et 10 ans à 4,09 %. Les statistiques (chômage, commandes industrielles) n’ont pas été publiées en raison du shutdown.

• Japon : Rendements globalement inchangés, le 10 ans JGB atteignant 1,67 %, son plus haut depuis 2008, avant de se replier.

Matières premières

• Indice Bloomberg Commodity : stable sur la semaine (+10 % YTD). Métaux précieux +48 % YTD, industriels +10 % YTD (cuivre et zinc solides). Énergie en retrait (–4,9 % YTD), tout comme les céréales (–7 % YTD).

• Or : consolide sous 3 900 USD. Soutenu par les perspectives de baisse de taux US et les ETF or. Pression baissière à court terme avec l’absence d’achats chinois (Golden Week).

• Pétrole : Brent en forte baisse (–6,5 % sur la semaine) à 65 USD, avant la réunion OPEP+ de dimanche. Excédent d’offre marqué avec des stocks maritimes proches d’un pic décennal.

Devises

• USD : termine plus ferme.

• JPY : affaibli par les propos prudents de la BoJ (USD/JPY à 147,70).

• EUR/USD : proche de 1,1715 (après un pic à 1,1758).

Points clés

• Equities: New highs for the US indices, but markets close off session highs.
• Volatility: Slightly elevated and posting highest close in a week despite strong risk sentiment.
• Digital Assets:  Another surge overnight but partially unwound in the case of Ethereum
• Currencies: USD choppy to firm, especially versus weak JPY after BoJ’s Ueda cautious on rate hike timing
• Commodities:  Gold eyes resistance at USD 3900. Steep losses in crude ahead of OPEC+ meeting
• Fixed Income: US treasury yields steady amidst lack of US data – though ISM Services up today
• Macro events: Bank of England’s Bailey to speak, Fed’s Miran, US Sep. ISM Services

Macro headlines

• Entering its second day, the government shutdown prompted Trump to threaten widespread federal job cuts measuring in their thousands to pressure Democrats. The closure also led to a data blackout, delaying the Labor Department's scheduled release of September's nonfarm payrolls.
• The Bank of Japan’s Governor Ueda was out with cautious rhetoric on the likelihood of an imminent rate hike, saying that the delay of the release of US data is a “severe problem” and that there is still “large” uncertainty on the impact of US tariffs, but that it may be too late to wait for all data, including the degree to which food inflation will continue to slow. Clearly, he is unwilling to pre-commit to a rate hike at the October meeting.
• US employers announced plans to cut 54,064 jobs in September, the lowest in three months and down almost 26% from a year ago but bringing the total for the year to 946.426 cuts, the highest since 2020, with reductions most notable in government. Those planning to add jobs reached 117,313 in September, down 71% YoY, making it the weakest month for hiring since 2011.
• Euro Area unemployment rate rose to 6.3% from July's 6.2%, against expectations for stability. The jobless count increased by 11,000 to 10.842 million. Youth unemployment held at 14%, and Spain, France, and Italy had the highest rates, while Germany and the Netherlands had the lowest. A year ago, the rate was also 6.3%. The EU unemployment rate was 5.9%.
• The temporary US government shutdown will halt Friday’s scheduled release of the CFTC’s closely watched Commitment of Traders Report (COT), covering futures positions held across forex, commodities, fixed income and stock indices. During the 35-day shutdown from 22 December 2018 to 25 January 2019, the flow of positioning data was severely disrupted, with the COT report only catching up by 8 March that year. Depending on the duration of the current shutdown, managed money and other speculative accounts may again operate under the radar for an extended period.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

• US Government data are impacted by shutdowns and are likely to be delayed
• 0800 – Eurozone Sep. PMI
• 1230 – US Employment Report
• 1335 – US Fed’s Stephen Miran to speak on Bloomberg TV
• 1345 – US Sep. S&P Global PMI
• 1400 - US Sep. ISM Services
• 1930 – US Fed’s Stephen Miran to speak on Fox Business
• Other Fed speakers: Goolsbee on CNBC (1230), Logan (1730), Jefferson (1740)

Earnings events

Next week

• Monday: Constellation Brands
• Thursday: Pepsico, Progressive Corporation, Delta
• Friday: Blackrock

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• US: Major indices inched to fresh record closes — S&P 500 ~+0.1%, Nasdaq ~+0.4%, Dow ~+0.2% — as AI/semis strength outweighed shutdown noise. Materials led; Energy lagged with crude softer. Semis pushed to a new high.
• Single-name moves: Tesla reversed lower after an early pop on deliveries; Coinbase rallied ~+7%; chip bellwethers firmed (reports tied Intel foundry + potential AMD customer chatter). FICO jumped on a direct-to-mortgage distribution push; peers Equifax/TransUnion slipped.
• Europe: The STOXX 600 closed at a record high (about +0.7%). Tech outperformed on chip optimism (ASML/ASMI strong), Autos bid (Stellantis ~+7%, Ferrari ~+3% after an upgrade), while Healthcare extended gains.
• Asia: Japan rallied (Nikkei roughly +1.7%), led by tech; Hitachi spiked on AI headlines. South Korea: markets closed for National Foundation Day. Mainland China: Golden Week holiday; Hong Kong traded softer; Australia/Taiwan firmer.

Volatility

VIX rose yesterday, closing at the highest level in a week at 16.6 despite the new highs in equities.

Digital Assets

BTC hovering near USD 120k after another surge overnight, the highest level in over two months. Similarly, Ethereum rose to new highs overnight above USD 4,500 but reversed back below yesterday’s highs and below that 4.5k level overnight.

Fixed Income

• US treasury yields chopped back higher yesterday before falling again toward unchanged, with the benchmark 2-year treasury yield trading near 3.55% after a 3.53% low yesterday and the benchmark 10-year treasury yield at 4.09% after a 4.08% low. US jobless claims and Factory Orders data was not released yesterday due to the government shutdown.
• Japan’s government bond yields were sideways to slightly lower at the front end of Japan’s sovereign yield curve even as Bank of Japan governor Ueda was out with cautious rhetoric on whether the BoJ is on he cusp of tightening policy – see more in Macro Headlines above. The benchmark 10-year JGB yield poked at the highs for the cycle since 2008 near 1.67% before edging back.

Commodities

• The Bloomberg Commodity Index traded flat on the week, leaving its year-to-date gain at 10%. The advance continues to be driven by a phenomenal rally in precious metals, up 1.6% on the week and 48% year-to-date, with industrial metals also contributing—up 2.9% on the week and 10% on the year—supported by copper and zinc strength. The laggards remain energy (–2.8% on the week, –4.9% YTD), hit by ongoing supply overhang from recent OPEC+ increases, and grains (flat on the week, –7% YTD), where strong production continues to meet steady demand.
• Gold is consolidating following another record-breaking run, meeting resistance near USD 3,900. Support stems from expectations of additional Fed rate cuts amid the US government shutdown, alongside strong demand for gold-backed ETFs. This has partly been offset by the absence of Chinese buying during Golden Week, which runs through 8 October.
• Crude oil is heading for a steep weekly loss of around 6.5%, with Brent breaking below recent support at USD 65. The focus now shifts to Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting, where another production increase may further stoke oversupply concerns. Oil-on-the-water has already risen toward a 10-year seasonal high, underscoring the current imbalance.

Currencies

• The US dollar chopped around yesterday, ending somewhat stronger across the board. The Japanese yen weakened on cautious rhetoric from Bank of Japan governor Ueda (see more above), taking USDJPY back up to 147.70 this morning after the recent 146.60 low. EURUSD trades near 1.1715 after a 1.1758 high and 1.1683 low yesterday.