Market Quick Take – 3 October 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: New highs for the US indices, but markets close off session highs.
• Volatility: Slightly elevated and posting highest close in a week despite strong risk sentiment.
• Digital Assets:  Another surge overnight but partially unwound in the case of Ethereum
• Currencies: USD choppy to firm, especially versus weak JPY after BoJ’s Ueda cautious on rate hike timing
• Commodities:  Gold eyes resistance at USD 3900. Steep losses in crude ahead of OPEC+ meeting
• Fixed Income: US treasury yields steady amidst lack of US data – though ISM Services up today
• Macro events: Bank of England’s Bailey to speak, Fed’s Miran, US Sep. ISM Services

Macro headlines

• Entering its second day, the government shutdown prompted Trump to threaten widespread federal job cuts measuring in their thousands to pressure Democrats. The closure also led to a data blackout, delaying the Labor Department's scheduled release of September's nonfarm payrolls.
• The Bank of Japan’s Governor Ueda was out with cautious rhetoric on the likelihood of an imminent rate hike, saying that the delay of the release of US data is a “severe problem” and that there is still “large” uncertainty on the impact of US tariffs, but that it may be too late to wait for all data, including the degree to which food inflation will continue to slow. Clearly, he is unwilling to pre-commit to a rate hike at the October meeting.
• US employers announced plans to cut 54,064 jobs in September, the lowest in three months and down almost 26% from a year ago but bringing the total for the year to 946.426 cuts, the highest since 2020, with reductions most notable in government. Those planning to add jobs reached 117,313 in September, down 71% YoY, making it the weakest month for hiring since 2011.
• Euro Area unemployment rate rose to 6.3% from July's 6.2%, against expectations for stability. The jobless count increased by 11,000 to 10.842 million. Youth unemployment held at 14%, and Spain, France, and Italy had the highest rates, while Germany and the Netherlands had the lowest. A year ago, the rate was also 6.3%. The EU unemployment rate was 5.9%.
• The temporary US government shutdown will halt Friday’s scheduled release of the CFTC’s closely watched Commitment of Traders Report (COT), covering futures positions held across forex, commodities, fixed income and stock indices. During the 35-day shutdown from 22 December 2018 to 25 January 2019, the flow of positioning data was severely disrupted, with the COT report only catching up by 8 March that year. Depending on the duration of the current shutdown, managed money and other speculative accounts may again operate under the radar for an extended period.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

• US Government data are impacted by shutdowns and are likely to be delayed
• 0800 – Eurozone Sep. PMI
• 1230 – US Employment Report
• 1335 – US Fed’s Stephen Miran to speak on Bloomberg TV
• 1345 – US Sep. S&P Global PMI
• 1400 - US Sep. ISM Services
• 1930 – US Fed’s Stephen Miran to speak on Fox Business
• Other Fed speakers: Goolsbee on CNBC (1230), Logan (1730), Jefferson (1740)

Earnings events

Next week

• Monday: Constellation Brands
• Thursday: Pepsico, Progressive Corporation, Delta
• Friday: Blackrock

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• US: Major indices inched to fresh record closes — S&P 500 ~+0.1%, Nasdaq ~+0.4%, Dow ~+0.2% — as AI/semis strength outweighed shutdown noise. Materials led; Energy lagged with crude softer. Semis pushed to a new high.
• Single-name moves: Tesla reversed lower after an early pop on deliveries; Coinbase rallied ~+7%; chip bellwethers firmed (reports tied Intel foundry + potential AMD customer chatter). FICO jumped on a direct-to-mortgage distribution push; peers Equifax/TransUnion slipped.
• Europe: The STOXX 600 closed at a record high (about +0.7%). Tech outperformed on chip optimism (ASML/ASMI strong), Autos bid (Stellantis ~+7%, Ferrari ~+3% after an upgrade), while Healthcare extended gains.
• Asia: Japan rallied (Nikkei roughly +1.7%), led by tech; Hitachi spiked on AI headlines. South Korea: markets closed for National Foundation Day. Mainland China: Golden Week holiday; Hong Kong traded softer; Australia/Taiwan firmer.

Volatility

VIX rose yesterday, closing at the highest level in a week at 16.6 despite the new highs in equities.

Digital Assets

BTC hovering near USD 120k after another surge overnight, the highest level in over two months. Similarly, Ethereum rose to new highs overnight above USD 4,500 but reversed back below yesterday’s highs and below that 4.5k level overnight.

Fixed Income

• US treasury yields chopped back higher yesterday before falling again toward unchanged, with the benchmark 2-year treasury yield trading near 3.55% after a 3.53% low yesterday and the benchmark 10-year treasury yield at 4.09% after a 4.08% low. US jobless claims and Factory Orders data was not released yesterday due to the government shutdown.
• Japan’s government bond yields were sideways to slightly lower at the front end of Japan’s sovereign yield curve even as Bank of Japan governor Ueda was out with cautious rhetoric on whether the BoJ is on he cusp of tightening policy – see more in Macro Headlines above. The benchmark 10-year JGB yield poked at the highs for the cycle since 2008 near 1.67% before edging back.

Commodities

• The Bloomberg Commodity Index traded flat on the week, leaving its year-to-date gain at 10%. The advance continues to be driven by a phenomenal rally in precious metals, up 1.6% on the week and 48% year-to-date, with industrial metals also contributing—up 2.9% on the week and 10% on the year—supported by copper and zinc strength. The laggards remain energy (–2.8% on the week, –4.9% YTD), hit by ongoing supply overhang from recent OPEC+ increases, and grains (flat on the week, –7% YTD), where strong production continues to meet steady demand.
• Gold is consolidating following another record-breaking run, meeting resistance near USD 3,900. Support stems from expectations of additional Fed rate cuts amid the US government shutdown, alongside strong demand for gold-backed ETFs. This has partly been offset by the absence of Chinese buying during Golden Week, which runs through 8 October.
• Crude oil is heading for a steep weekly loss of around 6.5%, with Brent breaking below recent support at USD 65. The focus now shifts to Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting, where another production increase may further stoke oversupply concerns. Oil-on-the-water has already risen toward a 10-year seasonal high, underscoring the current imbalance.

Currencies

• The US dollar chopped around yesterday, ending somewhat stronger across the board. The Japanese yen weakened on cautious rhetoric from Bank of Japan governor Ueda (see more above), taking USDJPY back up to 147.70 this morning after the recent 146.60 low. EURUSD trades near 1.1715 after a 1.1758 high and 1.1683 low yesterday.