Market Quick Take - Asia gives back its chip-led open as oil firms and long yields hit a 19-year high - 18 August 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Macro: Risk sentiment falters on geopolitical tensions and new modern high in US 30-year yield
• Equities: US and European equities slipped as oil and yields rose, Asia turned mixed as Korean chip strength met broader risk-off pressure.
• Volatility: Near-term protection was bid back off the floor as energy and rate volatility climbed
• Digital Assets: Listed crypto proxies rallied hard while the underlying majors drifted quietly sideways
• Commodities: Gold holds despite yield rise, crude firmer on Middle East risk and scarcity keeps copper bid.
• Fixed Income: Global bond markets under pressure on higher energy prices, although auction of 5-year JGB’s drew strong demand.
• Currencies: USD weakness reverses as global risk sentiment softens.

Macro

• Australia's Aug. Westpac Consumer Confidence rose to 88.9, a five-month high and up from 83.9 in July after scraping near the multi-year lows in April through June.
• US President Trump said he is not interested in extending the 60-day ceasefire deal that technically expired Monday. He repeated the idea of making the Strait of Hormuz a US Territory.
• Canada’s headline inflation rose to 2.9% in July from 2.8% in June, still below the 3.2% post-Iran-war peak. Gasoline inflation climbed to 25.7% on renewed Iran–US tensions. Core inflation inched up (median 2.0%, trimmed 1.9%), with World Cup–driven travel costs surging, while food and shelter inflation eased. Month over month, prices gained 0.5% after a 0.4% decline.
• The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell to 25 in August 2026 from 34 in July, defying expectations for 33. Current sales conditions rose two points to 39, and sales expectations stayed at 43. Price cuts were reported by 35% of builders (down two points), averaging 6%.
• The Empire State Manufacturing Index rose to 20.6 in August from 15.6, far above expectations and the strongest since late 2021. New orders and shipments increased, delivery times lengthened, and inventories fell amid worsening supply conditions. Employment edged up, input costs rose, and selling prices stayed elevated, while firms remained optimistic despite modest capex plans.
• More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

• 0600 – UK Jun. Unemployment Rate, Employment Change, Earnings data
• 0600 – UK Jul. Claimant Count Change, Payrolled Employees Change
• 0900 – Germany Aug. ZEW Survey
• 1230 – US Weekly ADP Employment Change for four weeks through Aug 1
• 1230 – US Jul. Housing Starts and Building Permits
• 1315 – US Jul. Industrial Production

Earnings events

• Tuesday: Home Depot, Keysight Technologies, Coloplast, Klarna
• Wednesday: Analog Devices, TJX Companies, Lowe’s, Target, Estee Lauder, Geberit, Carlsberg
• Thursday: Walmart, Deere & Company, Ross Stores, Netease, Fortescue, Novonesis

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 fell 0.5% to 7,745.06, the Dow lost 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.2% as higher oil prices and long-term Treasury yields pressured risk appetite. Microsoft dropped 3.0% and Meta 3.5% as higher yields weighed on large growth stocks, while Constellation Brands fell 6.2% after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed it had exited the position. Chips bucked the weakness, with Micron up 4.1% as US trade policy signalled resistance to Apple sourcing memory from China. Investors now turn to Home Depot and Walmart for a fresh read on the US consumer.
• Europe: The Stoxx 600 fell 0.2% to 656.41 and the FTSE 100 lost 0.3% to 10,720.30 as geopolitical tension and rising oil prices cooled risk appetite. Argenx jumped 17.1% after its drug met the primary endpoint in a Phase 3 autoimmune myositis study, while SIG Group slumped 17.6% after an unexpected chief executive change. Consumer names were weak, with LVMH down 2.7% and Kering 4.3% lower as luxury stocks retreated broadly. With earnings largely behind Europe, attention is shifting back toward September central-bank decisions and the inflation implications of higher energy prices.
• Asia: Markets turned lower through Tuesday’s session as the US-Iran truce expired, oil stayed above $90 and bond yields climbed. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell around 1.8% and the Hang Seng lost 0.6%, while South Korea’s Kospi gave back an early gain of more than 3% and moved into negative territory after reopening from Monday’s holiday. SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics initially rallied with the global chip trade before gains faded as risk appetite weakened. Geely remained in focus after strong first-half results and a leadership reshuffle, while Xiaomi reports today, with investors watching electric-vehicle momentum and input costs.
• More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

• Protection was bid back off the floor as crude firmed and the 30-year yield reached a 19-year high. VIX rose 6.60% to 15.19 and VIX9D jumped 16.78% to 12.39, while VVIX added 7.36% to 93.92. Same-day VIX1D went the other way, down 9.37% to 8.32.
• The cash curve stays in contango, 15.19 spot against 19.04 at three months and 23.04 at one year, the front future at 18.15. SKEW reached 142.91, MOVE jumped 8.70% to 75.63 and oil vol hit 52.92. SPX options imply 0.37% today and 0.83% into Friday, with the FOMC minutes Wednesday.
• For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the Options Insights

Digital Assets

• The listed proxies did the work while the majors drifted. Strategy rose 4.99%, Marathon 5.60%, Riot 5.39% and Cipher 3.61%, with Circle up 4.18% and Coinbase 1.40%, against spot bitcoin and ether both easing overnight. DVOL slipped to 34.49.
• Strategy paid USD 52.4 million of dividends on its STRC preferred and then spent USD 132.2 million buying that stock back, leaving its bitcoin reserve unchanged near 840,000 coins for a further week.

Commodities

• Oil: Crude firmed again, with Brent reaching a two-week high above USD 91 after Trump rejected extending the US-Iran agreement, while new attacks on vessels were reported in the Strait of Hormuz and fighting resumed in Lebanon. Together, these developments have further dimmed prospects for a near-term resolution of the 6½-month-long US/Israel-Iran war. The US continues to signal that it intends to use sustained economic pressure to force Tehran into accepting its demands.
• Precious metals: Spot gold traded near USD 4,400, having steadied after gaining 1.5% over the previous two sessions. The metal is up more than 11% over the past month, its strongest 22-session advance since early February, supported by a softer dollar, fading Fed rate-hike expectations and continued demand from central banks. Investor concerns about the US fiscal and debt outlook are also providing support, particularly as long-end Treasury yields continue to rise.
• Broad commodities: The BCOM TR index has now rebounded 13% from its late-June correction low and trades just 3.2% below the record high reached in May. Notably, the recovery has been broad-based, with all major sectors except industrial metals, up 7%, recording double-digit gains from the correction low. Energy and soft commodities lead with gains of more than 19%, followed by grains at 12% and precious metals at 10%. At the individual commodity level, natural gas is the only contract trading lower over the period, while the strongest gains have been seen in diesel, crude oil, coffee, gasoline and sugar.
• More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

• The benchmark US 30-year Treasury yield hit a fresh 19-year high above 5.30% Monday (up five basis points from Friday’s close) as the US yield curve steepened. Higher oil prices on the ongoing tensions in the Middle East combined with some recent soft US economic numbers suggest stagflationary concerns. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was also higher, but has yet to threaten above the recent cycle high just below 4.75%, trading near 4.73% early Tuesday. At the front end of the curve, the benchmark US 2-year yield remained rangebound, slightly higher from Friday near 4.19%.
• The yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond rose to a new multi-decade high, trading nearly as high as 2.97% intraday before dropping back, as a strong 5-year JGB auction Tuesday brought relief for the JGB market.

Currencies

• The US dollar weakened further on Monday before finding support as global risk sentiment faltered on rising oil prices and rising US long Treasury yields. EURUSD traded as high as 1.1614 Monday but was trading near 1.1570 early Tuesday. AUDUSD only fell back slightly on Tuesday, trading above 0.7100 after a 0.7129 high on Monday.
• USDJPY nudged to a new high above 159.60, eyeing the psychological 160.00 level again and the risk of renewed official Japanese intervention to prevent further JPY weakness. Pressuring the yen are the latest rise in crude oil prices and global bond yields.
• More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis