Market Quick Take – 11 November 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: US rallied on shutdown progress and dovish Fed talk, Europe advanced on upgrades and corporate headlines, Asia mixed
• Volatility: VIX slips to 17.6, thin liquidity and CPI in focus
• Digital Assets: Bitcoin steady near $105k, alt-coins softer on lighter flows
• Currencies: Sluggish action across the board, CHF firms on hopes for lower US tariff rate.
• Commodities: Gold and silver jumps on renewed US Fiscal concerns
• Fixed Income: Japan’s yield curve steepens on soft 30-year auction but front-end yields drop. US treasuries end slightly higher.
• Macro events: UK Employment Data, US bond market close today to mark Veterans’ Day

Macro headlines

• The US Senate progressed a procedural measure that brings a funding bill to end the 40-day US government shutdown closer to approval. Eight Democrats diverged from leadership to back the motion, but the bill still requires a House vote.
• Japan’s Eco Watchers Survey for October was far more positive than expected, possibly in connection with the arrival of PM Sanae Takaichi as Prime Minister. The Current conditions came in at 49.1 vs. 47.1 in Sep. and the Outlook rose to 53.1 vs. 48.8 expected and 48.5 in September. Takaichi is set to unveil new fiscal measures that are likely to prove more expansionary.
• Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran suggested a half-point rate cut in December, which may bolster risk assets if widely supported. However, the shutdown delays key economic releases and poses execution risk in the House, potentially unsettling markets if the agreement falls apart.
• Switzerland may soon secure a reduction of the US tariff on its exports from 39% to 15%, with an agreement possible in two weeks following talks intensified by US President Trump's directive. Switzerland is seeking relief as the original tariff impacted growth and raised unemployment to a four-year high.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

US Government data are impacted by shutdowns and are likely to be delayed

0700 – UK Sep. Weekly Earnings, Sep. ILO Unemployment Rate, Sep. Employment Change
0700 – UK Oct. Jobless Claims Change
0830 – Sweden Riksbank Minutes
1000 – Germany Nov. ZEW Survey
1100 – US Oct. NFIB Small Business Optimism

US bond market is closed to mark Veterans’ Day, stock market open

Earnings events

• Today: Softbank
• Wednesday: Cisco Systems, Hon Hai Precision, Infineon
• Thursday: Siemens, Walt Disney, Applied Materials, Deutsche Telekom, Brookfield, Nu Holdings
• Friday: Compagnie Financiere Richemont

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: S&P 500 rose 1.5%, Nasdaq 2.3%, and the Dow 0.8% after the Senate advanced a bill to end the 40-day shutdown, while Fed Governor Stephen Miran flagged that a 0.5% cut in December would be “appropriate.” AI leaders led: Nvidia +5.8%, Palantir +8.8%, AMD +4.5%, and Micron +6.5% as growth regained momentum. Health insurers lagged on policy and margin worries, with Centene −8.8% and Elevance −4.4%. Focus turns to the House vote and the December FOMC path.
• Europe: Eurozone stocks rebounded as STOXX 50 gained 1.8% and STOXX 600 1.4%; the FTSE 100 added 1.1% to another record as sentiment improved on US shutdown progress. Diageo rose 5.2% after naming Dave Lewis as CEO, Commerzbank climbed 6.6% on upbeat analyst chatter, and Siemens Energy added 4.6% on broker support. Novo Nordisk gained 1.2% after exiting the Metsera bidding war that Pfizer won. Earnings and guidance from European defensives and financials stay in focus this week.
• Asia: Tone was mixed into Tuesday’s close. Nikkei 225 fell 1.5% as chip weakness persisted, while the Hang Seng rose 1.6% and CSI 300 slipped 0.8%; Korea’s KOSPI rose 0.7%. SoftBank gained 2.8% after reporting a ¥2.5 trillion Q2 profit, while Alibaba eased 2.7% in Hong Kong trading. Investors weigh China activity data and TSMC monthly sales signals against the global AI rebound.

Volatility

• Market nerves remain moderate with the VIX at about 17.60, down roughly 7.8% from the prior session. With the US bond market closed for Veterans Day, liquidity is a bit thinner – meaning any headline surprise could trigger outsized moves. The big macro threat still is the impending US government shutdown resolution (or lack thereof) and tomorrow’s US CPI print, which remains on investors’ radar despite data­flow delays.
• Options pricing signals an expected move for the S&P 500 of about ±1.1% (~±78 points) by end of week, offering a realistic baseline of range rather than calm.
• From the weekly chain, there’s a slight call-skew visible (calls are modestly pricier than equivalent puts) – suggesting some hedging/upside bias creeping into the market psyche.

Digital Assets

• The crypto space is holding steady: Bitcoin is hovering around $105k–106k, reflecting cautious risk-on appetite but no breakout momentum. The ETF-linked product IBIT is trading near $60.19, showing continued institution-driven interest. Meanwhile, Ethereum has reclaimed around $3,550, and its ETF vehicle ETHA is regaining traction after earlier weakness in crypto flows.
• Among alt-coins, the tone is neutral to slightly positive — no big moves yet, but the major names are participating in the broader risk bounce.
• The flow environment remains the story: crypto is not decoupled from equity sentiment, and these products give a window into that.

Fixed Income

• US Treasury yields steadied after gapping higher to start week, as the benchmark two-year ended the day three basis points higher from Friday’s close and the benchmark ten-year treasury yields ended the day only two basis points higher at 4.116%. US bond markets are closed today to mark Veterans Day.
• Japanese government bond yields fell at the front end of the yield curve even as the noise level on anticipated expansionary fiscal plans from new PM Takaichi is picking up. A soft 30-year JGB bond auction saw a sharp rise in the 30-year yield to 3.166%, while the benchmark 10-year JGB yield retreated sharply, erasing the move to 17-year highs the previous day and taking the yield back to 1.686%, back in the prior range. The 2-year benchmark yield likewise dropped back.

Commodities

• Gold and silver extended their biggest daily jump since May during Asian trading. Since Friday, gold has gained 3.2% and silver 5.2%, helped by a renewed focus on US fiscal concerns as a government reopening would enable fresh spending financed through additional borrowing. The technical backdrop has added fuel, with prices pushing through key resistance levels on Monday and drawing in momentum buyers. A reopening would also restart the economic data flow, potentially firming expectations for a December rate cut.
• Crude oil remains trapped in its established range, with a softening backwardation signaling comfortable supply conditions. This continues to weigh on prices ahead of the monthly oil market reports from OPEC, the EIA and the IEA, starting Wednesday, which may offer clearer guidance on the size and timing of the expected global surplus in the coming months.

Currencies

• Very sluggish action in G10 currencies yesterday, as EURUSD remains stuck just above 1.1550, while USDJPY tried to poke at the 154.50 resistance but failed to punch through, retreating to 154.20 as of early European hours. US bond markets are closed today to mark Veterans’ Day.
• CHF got a modest boost from hopes (according to media sources) that the US is set to lower its very high tariff barrier to place it in line with the level of most trading partners, from 39 to 15%. EURCHF trades near 0.9300 this morning after a high of 0.9328 yesterday.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.