Asia Market Quick Take – November 11, 2025

Key points:

• Macro: Senate progresses bill to end the govt. shutdown
• Equities: Tech rebound lifts Nasdaq, shutdown optimism boosts Dow and S&P
• FX: JPY fell to 154.25 against USD; AUD rose on positive sentiment, data
• Commodities: Gold up 3% as US shutdown deal nears
• Fixed income: Short‑ and intermediate‑maturity US Treasury yields ended higher

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• The Senate progressed a procedural measure that brings a funding bill to end the 40-day government shutdown closer to approval. Eight Democrats diverged from leadership to back the motion, but the bill still requires a House vote.
• Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran suggested a half-point rate cut in December, which may bolster risk assets if widely supported. However, the shutdown delays key economic releases and poses execution risk in the House, potentially unsettling markets if the agreement falls apart.
• Switzerland may soon secure a reduction of the US tariff on its exports from 39% to 15%, with an agreement possible in two weeks following talks intensified by US President Trump's directive. Switzerland is seeking relief as the original tariff impacted growth and raised unemployment to a four-year high.

Equities: 

• US - U.S. stocks surged Monday as the S&P 500 rose 1.6%, Nasdaq jumped 2.4%, and Dow gained 415 points after the Senate advanced a measure to reopen the government, ending a 40-day shutdown. Eight Democrats supported the motion, but a House vote remains. AI-linked tech led the rally: Nvidia (+5.8%), Palantir (+8.8%), AMD (+4.5%), and Micron (+6.5%) as investors returned to growth stocks. Fed Governor Stephen Miran signaled a possible 0.5% December rate cut, boosting hopes for easier policy. Still, the shutdown delays key data and poses House execution risks, which could unsettle markets if the deal falters.
• EU - European stocks rebounded Monday from three-week lows as optimism grew over a potential U.S. government reopening and easing tech bubble fears. The STOXX 50 jumped 1.8% to 5,670, while STOXX 600 rose 1.5% to 573 after U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson urged a swift vote following the Senate’s approval of a shutdown-ending bill. Corporate news added momentum: Commerzbank (+6.2%) and Siemens Energy (+4.6%) rallied on analyst upgrades; Diageo surged 5.7% after naming ex-Tesco CEO Dave Lewis as chief; Novo Nordisk gained 1.2% after dropping its bid for Metsera, ending its battle with Pfizer.
• HK - Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumped 1.6% to 26,649 on Monday, rebounding as global equities rallied after the U.S. Senate advanced a bill to end the 40-day shutdown. Gains were broad-based, led by consumer and tech stocks, as mainland markets hit decade highs on easing producer price deflation and positive consumer prices. Sentiment improved after Beijing signaled relief for the auto sector following export curbs tied to Nexperia. However, caution lingered ahead of key Chinese data on credit, output, and retail sales, with analysts warning deflation risks persist. Top movers: Mixue (+9.1%), H World (+5.5%), Laopu Gold (+5.4%).

Earnings this week:

• Tuesday: Sea; SoftBank; Sony
• Wednesday: Cisco; On; Singtel
• Thursday: Disney; Applied Materials; Brookfield; Tencent; JD.com; Singapore Airlines

FX:

• Dollar Index fell due to positive US-China trade news and progress on the US government shutdown, with the Senate moving a funding bill forward. House Speaker Johnson seeks a Wednesday vote, although it remains uncertain. The Dollar traded in a range of 99.62, with lighter activity due to Veterans Day.
• CHF and JPY underperformed, with the JPY impacted by the risk environment. USDCHF traded narrowly, while USDJPY reached 154.25. BoJ officials' comments and meeting minutes had little impact, with rates left unchanged at 0.50%.
• AUD gained from risk-on sentiment and positive Chinese inflation data. The AUD was further supported by RBA's Hauser, who hinted at potential rate cuts as financial conditions near neutral. AUDUSD traded above 0.6530.

Commodities:

• Oil steadied amid softer metrics ahead of OPEC’s monthly report and the IEA’s annual outlook on Wednesday, followed by the IEA’s monthly on Thursday, after its prior call for a record 2026 glut. WTI hovered near $60 after Monday’s 0.6% rise and Brent around $64; WTI’s prompt spread narrowed to 9 cents in backwardation, the lowest since February, signalling looser conditions.
• Gold rallied as lawmakers neared a deal to end the record US shutdown, easing Fed policy uncertainty. Bullion jumped up to 2.9% above $4,115; spot rose 2.7% to $4,108.96 after White House backing. Silver gained 4.4%, with platinum and palladium also higher.

Fixed income:

• US Treasuries ended with short‑ and intermediate‑maturity yields higher, extending an opening gap lower in futures after weekend progress towards reopening the government. The initial sell‑off prompted buying in classic Bond futures, with the long end outperforming and the curve flattening. A 3‑year note auction drew strong demand, while options activity included notable call buying on the 10‑year contract.

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