Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Investment and Options Strategist
Summary: If you’re positive on Novo Nordisk but hesitant to buy after the recent pull-back, there are ways to approach your entry more strategically. This article outlines a disciplined method that lets investors define the price at which they’re willing to become shareholders.
Novo Nordisk’s US-listed shares (NVO:xnys) have struggled over the past year after an exceptionally strong multi‑year rally. The pull-back has created uncertainty for long-term investors who like the obesity and diabetes story but are hesitant to add exposure during a period of elevated volatility.
Recent price action shows the shares stabilising near the 45–50 area, a zone that has acted as short-term support. For investors who remain constructive on Novo but prefer a more deliberate entry point, a cash secured put offers a structured and financially disciplined approach.
This article focuses on the mechanics of the strategy. For a broader look at Novo’s fundamentals, see our colleague’s comparison of Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly (see the related links section below this article).
A cash secured put is a conservative options strategy designed for investors who are willing to buy shares at a predetermined price. You sell a put option at the strike level where you would be comfortable becoming a shareholder and keep enough cash aside to meet that obligation.
Two outcomes exist:
For long-term investors, this functions as a limit order that pays you a premium while you wait.
Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it's crucial to make informed decisions.
Below is the example setup based on current market conditions.
Key figures for this setup:
This keeps the strategy simple and transparent. Investors set aside the full strike value and evaluate the trade as if they were placing a buy order at 45.
The 45 level aligns with the short-term support visible on the charts. For many long-term investors, this is a more comfortable entry than buying directly at current levels.
There is also notable open interest at the 45 strike, as shown in the option chain. Open interest represents the number of outstanding contracts. High concentrations can behave as friction zones where market participants hedge and adjust positions. While not a predictive signal, it is a reference level many traders monitor.
Using simple numbers helps clarify what each scenario may look like.
If the share price remains above 45 at expiry, the put expires worthless. You keep the USD 140 premium. The return on the reserved USD 4,500 is about 3.1% for the period. You do not buy the shares, so if the market rallies significantly, you forgo that upside. You can repeat the strategy if you still want exposure.
If Novo ends near the strike—for example at 44.50—you are assigned and purchase 100 shares at 45. After accounting for the premium, your effective cost is 43.60. You begin your long-term investment with a small buffer even though the stock declined during the holding period.
If the shares fall substantially—for example to 35—you still must buy at 45. Your effective cost remains 43.60, and the loss resembles buying the stock outright at that level. A cash secured put does not shield you from company‑specific downside.
A cash secured put is a conservative structure, but it still carries the full downside risk of owning an individual stock. Novo’s long-term prospects are linked to regulatory, competitive and pipeline developments, all of which can influence price behaviour.
Opportunity cost is another factor. If the shares rebound rapidly and never revisit the strike, you may miss the recovery. Position size is important: the obligation to buy 100 shares should fit comfortably within your portfolio.
Investors should also consider tax treatment, currency implications and personal suitability before implementing the strategy.
For investors wishing to implement the strategy:
A cash secured put allows long-term investors to pursue ownership at a defined price while generating income on cash held aside. It is a measured way to re-engage with Novo after a volatile period, with clear outcomes and transparent risk.
You can close a short put at any time before expiry by buying back the option. The result may be a profit or a loss depending on where the option is trading.
You receive the premium upfront, but your final profit or loss depends on what happens between trade date and expiry, and whether you are assigned.
Yes. Many long-term investors sell puts repeatedly until they receive assignment at a price they are comfortable with.
No. A cash secured put provides only a small buffer equal to the premium received. A sharp fall in the share price can still lead to substantial losses.
You keep the full premium and remain uninvested. You can choose to sell another put or reconsider your entry strategy.
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