Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Investment and Options Strategist
Summary: This article is an educational introduction to the covered call strategy, using Alphabet as a practical example to help explain how the approach works in the real world. We walk through the mechanics step by step and illustrate them with the 350 USD call option to show how income and trade-offs come together in this strategy.
Alphabet has been back in the spotlight after releasing its latest AI model, Gemini 3. Early reviews suggest the model performs extremely well, even outperforming other leading systems on several public tests. There are also reports that Meta is considering using Google’s specialised AI chips (TPUs) for part of its computing needs. That would be a meaningful shift, because Meta currently relies heavily on Nvidia’s chips.
This renewed confidence in Alphabet pushed the share price sharply higher in a short period of time.
Many long‑term investors already hold Alphabet shares. After the recent rally, two thoughts often come up:
A covered call is a way to stay invested while earning a small amount of extra income. It does this by selling someone else the right to buy your shares at a higher price—but only if the share price rises above that level.
This strategy is popular among cautious, buy‑and‑hold investors because it is simple and uses shares they already own.
A covered call has three parts:
In exchange, you agree that if the share price rises above the strike price at the option’s expiry, the buyer may choose to buy your shares at that strike price.
A simple way to think about it:
“I’m happy to sell my Alphabet shares at 350 USD. If the price never goes above that level before the option expires, I simply keep the shares and the income.”
The trade‑off is straightforward:
This is why covered calls are considered conservative—you give up part of the upside but gain immediate income.
Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it's crucial to make informed decisions.
In this example, Alphabet trades around 322.77 USD. The 350 USD call option expiring on 19 December 2025 trades near 3.65 USD.
322.77 USD − 3.65 USD = 319.12 USD
This is the price at which losses begin after collecting the premium—and it is worth noting that without the covered call, any loss would have already started at the original share price. The premium simply cushions the first part of a decline.
Here is the visual payoff:
Above pictured is the option payoff diagram on its own. The green area shows the profit zone of the option position only, meaning the premium you receive from selling the call. Because this view isolates the option, it shows gains even when the line moves downward — this reflects the fact that the option seller keeps the premium as long as the share price stays below 350 USD. The red area shows the zone where the option seller begins to lose money on the option itself once the share price rises above the strike. However, this chart does not include the gains or losses from the underlying Alphabet shares. When you combine both the option and the shares, the overall position is still bullish, because the rising share price offsets the red option area — up to the point where the upside becomes capped at the strike price.
This concept can be confusing for beginners, so here is a simple explanation:
So if Alphabet is at roughly 323 USD, then:
Expected upper end ≈ 323 USD + 25 USD = around 350 USD
This is not a prediction. It is simply the range the options market considers “normal” based on current pricing.
Selecting a strike at the top of that range means:
“Implied volatility” sounds complex, but the idea is simple: when markets expect more movement, option prices go up.
Recent AI‑related news made Alphabet more active than usual. That extra uncertainty increases option premiums. For a covered call seller, higher premiums are good—they translate into more income.
Looking at open interest (the number of already‑open contracts):
This does not guarantee anything, but when many traders are positioned at similar levels, hedging activity sometimes slows rapid price moves. In other words:
These open‑interest clusters can act like short‑term “speed bumps”.
For covered call sellers, having a “speed bump” below your chosen strike can offer some comfort.
Covered calls are not just a "set-and-forget" strategy. In many cases, investors choose to manage the position if the share price rises faster than expected.
For example, suppose Alphabet moves higher as we approach the expiry date, heading towards the 350 USD strike. This is generally positive — the underlying stock is performing well — but it may also mean the shares are likely to be sold at 350 USD if the option finishes in the money.
If you prefer not to sell your shares, you can take an active step known as rolling the option:
Many investors roll forward and up at the same time. In some cases, this adjustment can even be done for a small additional credit. The benefit is that you:
Rolling does not remove the trade-offs, but it gives investors more flexibility in shaping both income and upside potential.
A covered call may be worth considering if:
It may be less suitable if:
As always, investors should ensure the strategy fits their personal objectives and should seek independent advice if needed.
Alphabet’s recent AI momentum has lifted the share price quickly. Rather than guessing whether the rally continues or pauses, long‑term investors can use a covered call to earn income while remaining invested.
The 350 USD call provides:
For beginners, this is one of the most accessible option strategies—simple, conservative, and built directly on shares they already own.
Do I need exactly 100 shares to sell a covered call?
Yes. One option contract always represents 100 shares. If you own 200 shares, you may choose to sell one or two covered calls.
What happens if I change my mind and don’t want to sell my shares at the strike price?
You can manage the position by “rolling” the option into a later expiry and possibly a higher strike. This keeps the shares and extends the strategy.
Can I lose money with a covered call?
Yes. If the share price drops significantly, you still face the same downside as any shareholder. The premium only softens the first part of the decline.
Is a covered call better when markets are calm or active?
Covered calls generally provide more income when markets expect larger price movements, because option premiums rise during those periods.
What if Alphabet rises far above 350 USD?
If you do nothing, your shares will likely be sold at 350 USD. If you prefer to keep them, you may roll the option to a later expiry and higher strike, often for a small additional credit.
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