Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Investment and Options Strategist
Summary: Investors are looking for clearer ways to frame upside and downside in their core holdings. This article offers practical illustrations across SPY, QQQ, NVO, AMD and ASML, showing how different protection setups can shape risk in today’s market environment.
This article builds on our earlier educational materials about using options to manage risk. The focus here is simple, practical examples showing how different collar structures can shape the risk profile of widely held names.
Before we begin: A collar combines a long put with a short call on an existing share position. The examples below assume ownership of the underlying shares and are presented for illustration only. Credits and debits shown are per share (multiply by 100 for one standard contract).
Collars are often used by long‑term investors as a way to illustrate a defined range of potential outcomes during periods of sharp market swings. Instead of reacting to volatility, a collar sets two predefined option strikes — a cap and a floor — which help outline how the potential range of outcomes may change for a given holding.
The concept can sound like “options theory,” but in practice a collar behaves more like a risk‑management overlay: the short call brings in premium, the long put provides protection, and together they reshape the return profile of widely held names such as the ones we focus on today — SPY (US large‑cap equity market), QQQ (US technology‑heavy Nasdaq exposure), NVO (global healthcare and obesity‑treatment leader), AMD (semiconductors and AI computing) and ASML (critical supplier to the global chip industry).
This article keeps things practical. We present two collar examples per ticker, across two common monthly expiries, to demonstrate how different combinations of caps and floors can shape risk.
Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it's crucial to make informed decisions.
To keep things simple, we highlight only the essentials:
The goal is straightforward: a small, easy‑to‑compare set of examples that highlights how protection levels differ across expiries.
The context column shows days‑to‑expiry for both horizons, calculated from publication date.
Use the table below to compare how different caps and floors vary across tickers. Credits/debits are shown per share (multiply by 100 for one standard options contract). “Balanced” emphasises cost efficiency with moderate upside participation; “Protective” prioritises a tighter floor and accepts a smaller cap or a modest debit.
Prices shown are indicative and based on available data. They are gross figures, not accounting for fees, commissions, taxes or other transaction costs.
| Ticker | Expiry: 2025-12-19 | Expiry: 2026-03-20 | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | Balanced: 270/220, credit $3.15 Protective: 270/260, debit $14.80 | Balanced: 250/200, credit $22.85 Protective: 270/260, debit $12.00 | Spot ~$247.96 36 DTE / 127 DTE |
| ASML | Balanced: 1030/980, credit $14.90 Protective: 1050/1040, debit $23.40 | Balanced: 1020/900, credit $59.90 Protective: 1040/1020, credit $2.00 | Spot ~$1,019.86 36 DTE / 127 DTE |
| NVO | Balanced: 50/45, credit $1.67 Protective: 55/50, debit $2.30 | Balanced: 50/40, credit $4.05 Protective: 55/50, debit $1.95 | Spot ~$49.16 36 DTE / 127 DTE |
| QQQ | Balanced: 613/589.78, credit $7.02 Protective: 610/609.78, credit $2.29 | Balanced: 610/565, credit $20.90 Protective: 635/630, debit $15.08 | Spot ~$608.40 36 DTE / 127 DTE |
| SPY | Balanced: 675/657, credit $6.06 Protective: 673/672, credit $2.90 | Balanced: 725/630, debit $5.39 Protective: 690/685, debit $6.84 | Spot ~$672.04 36 DTE / 127 DTE |
For readers who want to understand how these collars were systematically chosen, an overview of the selection framework is included in the addendum at the end of this article.
Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it's crucial to make informed decisions.
The collar selection method is applied consistently across all tickers and expiries:
This framework supports a disciplined, repeatable selection process across SPY, QQQ, NVO, AMD and ASML.
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