Market Quick Take – 8 October 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: Tech weakness drags Wall Street; Europe steady as France stabilises; Asia mixed amid holidays and cautious sentiment.
• Volatility: VIX steady. FOMC minutes eyed. Low correlation hides stock-level swings
• Digital Assets: BTC near record. ETH steady.
• Currencies: JPY plunges further after 150.00 USDJPY break – hits 152.50+ amidst widespread USD strength. Large RBNZ rate cut weakens NZD.
• Commodities: Gold tops USD 4k with platinum enjoying the tailwind.
• Fixed Income: US treasuries rally amidst weak risk sentiment.
• Macro events: US Treasury to auction 10-year notes

Macro headlines

• New Zealand’s Reserve Bank cut the policy rate by 50 basis points to 2.50%, more than the 25 basis point cut most observers expected, and cited a willingness to reduce the rate further to support the struggling NZ economy.
• Germany Aug. Industrial Production out this morning at -4.3% month-on-month and -3.9% YoY, far worse than the -1.0%/-0.9% expected, respectively.
• Sweden’s Sep. CPI inflation out this morning softer at 0.0% MoM and 0.9% YoY at the headline versus +0.1%/1.0% expected, respectively and CPIF core inflation at +0.1% MoM and 3.1% YoY vs. +0.2% /3.2% YoY expected, respectively.
• US consumer inflation expectations rose to 3.4%, the highest in five months, up from 3.2% in August. Consumers anticipate higher prices for food, gas, medical care, and rent, while college cost expectations dropped. Home price growth expectations stayed steady at 3% for the fourth month. Five-year inflation expectations rose to 3% from 2.9%, and three-year stayed at 3%. Earnings growth expectations fell to 2.4%, while unemployment expectations rose to 41.1%. Household income growth expectations remained at 2.9%.
• The US RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index fell to 48.3 in October 2025, below expectations and the neutral 50 mark, indicating continued consumer pessimism. The Six-Month Economic Outlook dropped to 42.8, while Confidence in Federal Economic Policies fell to 46.4. Conversely, the Personal Financial Outlook improved, rising to 55.6 from 53.4 in September.
• The US Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index fell 0.2% in September 2025, marking the third consecutive month of subdued prices. Luxury, pickups, SUVs, and compact cars saw declines, while mid-sized sedans increased 0.2%. EV values rose 0.8%; non-EVs fell 1%. Annually, used car prices grew 2% led by luxury and EV gains. Despite declines, wholesale values remain elevated, noted Cox Automotive's Jeremy Robb.
• Canada’s trade deficit widened to C$6.3 billion in August 2025 from C$3.8 billion in July, exceeding expectations of C$5.6 billion, marking the second-widest deficit on record. Exports dropped 3% to $60.6 billion, affected by US tariffs, with significant falls in minerals and lumber. Imports rose 0.9% to C$66.9 billion, driven by a surge in metal purchases, despite energy import declines. Canada’s surplus with the US fell from C$7.4 billion in July to C$6.4 billion.
• US Logistics Manager’s Index dropped to 57.4, its lowest in six months, down from 59.3. This decline indicated slower logistics sector growth amid economic uncertainty. Transportation utilization decreased to 50, marking the weakest September on record. Transportation prices (54.2) slipped below capacity (55.1). Inventory levels slowed (55.2), but costs stayed high (75.5). Warehousing utilization (65.3) and capacity (51.6) increased, while warehousing prices fell sharply to 66.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

US Government data are impacted by shutdowns and are likely to be delayed
1320 – US Fed’s Musalem to speak
1330 – Fed’s Barr to speak
1400 – US Fed’s Goolsbee to speak
1700 – US Treasury to auction 10-year notes

Earnings events

• Thursday: Pepsico, Progressive Corporation, Delta
• Friday: Blackrock

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 fell 0.4%, the Nasdaq 0.7%, and the Dow 0.2% after an AI-driven run cooled. Tesla dropped 4.9% on lower-priced Model 3/Y reveal that underwhelmed analysts, while Ford slid 6.0% after a supply-chain hit from an aluminum plant fire. Offsetting, AMD rose 3.8% as its OpenAI partnership momentum persisted, and PayPal gained ~5% on launching an ads platform. Focus turns to macro data gaps from the U.S. shutdown and upcoming earnings pre-announcements.
• Europe: The STOXX 600 slipped 0.1% as healthcare weakness offset strength in luxury and energy; DAX was flat and CAC steadied after Monday’s drop, while FTSE 100 was roughly unchanged. Novo Nordisk fell 2.0% after a U.S. court setback on Medicare pricing, and Bayer lost 3.9% on cautious profit signals. LVMH rose 2.2% and Kering 4.4% on broker upgrades, while Shell added 1.5% on LNG outlook. Political uncertainty in France kept risk appetite muted.
• Asia: Regional tone was mixed into holiday-thinned trading. Nikkei 225 edged up 0.1% as autos firmed despite yen volatility, while Hang Seng fell 0.9% on tech and property softness; Australia’s ASX 200 slipped 0.1% as defensives couldn’t fully offset discretionary and tech. China and South Korea were closed for holidays. Gold above $4,000 and lingering U.S. shutdown headlines capped sentiment ahead of key policy signals.

Volatility

• Index volatility stayed contained even as crosscurrents built beneath the surface. The VIX rose modestly to 17.24 (+5.3%), while near-term measures such as VIX1D and VIX9D jumped double digits, signaling short-term tension around today’s FOMC minutes and 10-year Treasury auction.
• Dispersion remains high—Cboe data show single-stock volatility running far above index levels, reflected in the COR3M correlation index near 14.5, implying stocks are moving less in sync. This makes the index appear calm while individual names stay choppy.
• SPX expected move for today: ±29 points (~0.43%) based on 0DTE straddle pricing.

Digital Assets

• Bitcoin hovered near $121,000, easing from record highs, while Ethereum held at $4,450 as ETF inflows slowed after last week’s surge. IBIT slipped −3%, while ETHA dropped −5%, though both remain up strongly month-to-date. Altcoins traded mixed: SOL −0.2%, XRP −0.04%, while CIFR and CLSK gained on strong miner sentiment.
• The tone stays risk-on but cautious amid a flood of new ETF filings and regulatory moves—BitGo’s Dubai VARA license boosted institutional confidence, while ICE’s $2B Polymarket stake underscored growing links between traditional finance and crypto.
• Tokenized stocks also drew scrutiny as regulators warn about investor protection gaps.

Fixed Income

• US treasury yields fell yesterday amidst softer risk sentiment in risky assets, with the benchmark 2-year yield easing back just over 2 basis points to 3.56% and the benchmark 10-year yield dropping three basis points to close near 4.12% ahead of today’s US Treasury auction of 10-year notes.
• Japanese Government Bond yields were mixed, with the weaker JPY prompting yields to rise at the short end of the curve on anticipation that the Bank of Japan may tighten policy to push back against currency weakness feeding into inflation. The benchmark 2-year JGB yield rose two basis points to 0.93%. At the very longest end of the yield curve, yields were stable to slightly lower for the 30-year and 40-year JGB benchmarks.
• The France-Germany 10-year sovereign yield spread was steady near the top of the range since the beginning of this year at 86 basis points.
• Weaker risk sentiment yesterday saw a jump in US high yield bond spreads, with the Bloomberg measure of the spread between high yield debt and US treasury yields widening six basis points to 271 basis points, the widest since September 10.

Commodities

• Gold’s year-long rally culminated overnight as the spot price—despite a recovering dollar and renewed Fed caution on rate cuts—broke decisively above USD 4,000 for the first time. Platinum surged to a 52-week high, buoyed by investors seeking more affordable alternatives to record-breaking gold. A potent mix of geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and eroding faith in fiat currencies has created a near-perfect storm for investment metals. Year-to-date gains now stand at 51% for gold, 64% for silver, and 86% for platinum, reflecting broad-based demand for tangible assets amid concerns over debt sustainability.
• Crude oil trades higher, supported by short-covering after last week’s sell-off, even as rising OPEC+ output and a fresh EIA upgrade to U.S. production stoke fears of a growing glut into 2026. The latest API data showed a 2.8-million-barrel increase in U.S. stockpiles.

Currencies

• The Japanese yen weakness extended aggressively on the prior day’s break of 150.00 in USDJPY, with yesterday closing above 152.00 and a high so far of 152.65 trading overnight before resistance was found. The JPY was broadly weak yesterday, though pulled back higher slightly in the cross later in the Tokyo session overnight.
• Elsewhere, US dollar strength was the name of the game, with the greenback breaking resistance as EURUSD dropped to as low as 1.1612 this morning, the lowest since early September as the range low since early August at 1.1574 is eyed.
• NZD was hit hard by the larger than expected 50-basis point RBNZ cut overnight, sending AUDNZD back above 1.1400 as the AU-NZ 2-year yield spread yawned wider to near 85 basis points, the widest since 2012.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.