The Week Ahead: Greenland, Iran keep focus on geopolitics as Wall St banks kick off earnings season

Your guide to the trading calendar for the week covering 12 -16 Jan.

Geopolitics has been the inescapable market story of 2026 so far and this is set to continue in the coming days as Iran and Greenland take centre stage. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets Danish officials to discuss the future of Greenland, while traders keep a close watch on events in Iran and a possible impact on energy markets. Meanwhile earnings season kicks off on Wall Street with the big banks leading the way this week. US inflation data will be watched closely after a messy set of numbers a month ago suggested a sharp downwards move in price pressures.

Here’s the key events to watch over the next week.

Monday, 12 January

With events in Iran seemingly escalating it could be a volatile open for energy markets on Monday morning. Markets will also be reacting to any weekend comments on Greenland ahead of Rubio’s talks with Denmark over the future of the island. The White House has refused to rule out military action to take control of Greenland - a move widely seen as leading to the end of the Nato alliance, with potentially severe geopolitical ramifications. Headline risk is high going into the week - watch for moves in defence stocks, as well as mining companies and reflexive macro trades in Treasuries and gold.

Tuesday, 13 January

US CPI inflation data is the big event on the economic calendar today. Inflation was 2.7% in December 2025, the lowest since July and below forecasts. It was however affected by the record-long government shutdown, which limited the Bureau of Labor Statistics' ability to collect prices and resulted in some categories showing unusually low inflation. The BLS seems to have just put 0 in many categories and had a guess at things so we await to see if this report gives any more clarity. Low inflation clears the path for more Fed rate cuts so a higher print could upset markets.

Earnings season begins on Wall Street with Delta Air Lines and JPMorgan Chase – investors always pay close attention to Jamie Dimon’s letter. In the UK, Games Workshop provides its first half results.

Wednesday, 14 January

Earnings today come from Citigroup and Wells Fargo. The main data releases are the US PPI inflation and retail sales figures – what signs are there of a K-shaped economy? We hear from a bunch of Fed policymakers, who will start to talk up their expectations for rates in the wake of the inflation reports.

Thursday, 15 January

A raft of UK data sets the tone for sterling traders this week – the GDP report for November will probably show slowing in the economy after two straight negative reads. Construction output figures should be soft again too if the recent PMI survey is anything to judge. There are also industrial production figures from the Eurozone ahead of the weekly unemployment claims figures from the US. Watch also the Empire State and Philly Fed manufacturing indices.

Earnings come from BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing.

Friday, 16 January

A light day for economic data and earnings. Final CPI inflation numbers out of Germany could be worth a check after the latest Euro area data showed inflation down to 2.0%. Industrial production figures from the US rounds out the week.