Technical Technical Technical

Technical Update - Precious metals

Commodities 4 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group

After Gold XAUUSD spot failed to take out all time high earlier this month it got sold off down to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at around $1,895 where it has bounced somewhat. Seems as if the buyers have run out of power at the 0.682 retracement at around $1,965.

Expect Gold XAUUSD to be stuck in this range for maybe a week or two. However, 16th March trough at 1.895 could come under pressure and if breaking below next support is at $1,848.
With RSI showing no divergence it indicates we should see a move higher. A move above $1,965 could lead to a renewed test of all-time highs. With resistance at $2,000 i.e. the 0.618 retracement.
Keep an eye on the RSI. Breaking above its falling trendline could be first indication of a breakout from the $1,895-1,965 range.

Source: Saxo Group

Almost identical picture (to Gold) Silver XAGUSD spot retraced “only” 0.5 of the February-March bull move to around $24.45. However, that retracement could be extended with the past two days move the 0.50 retracement seems to come under pressure. A downwards move to the 0.618 at around $23.90 retracement and the 200 SMA is not unlikely.
To resume uptrend XAGUSD needs to take out $25.85

Source: Saxo Group

If Palladium is the Canary in the Coal mine then there could be more downside for Gold and Silver. Palladium has dropped below its 0.618 Fibo retracement hovering between its 100 and 200 Daily SMA.
RSI is below 40 showing negative sentiment and Bollinger Bands are expanding which indicate further down side can be expected.
For Palladium to reverse the down trend a break above $2.639 is needed

Source: Saxo Group

Platinum XPTUSD spot showing almost identical scenario to Palladium. After break rising trend line selling pressure intensified. RSI below 40 and Bollinger Bands expanding, short term down trend confirmed. Some support around $950.

Source: Saxo Group

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Markets
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
London
United Kingdom

Support Centre
For existing clients, please click here to request support via the Support Centre.

Have a question about our products, platforms or services? Visit the Support Centre to find answers for our most frequently asked questions. If you are still unable to locate an answer to your question, you will also find contact details for your local Saxo office to speak with a representative.

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo Markets is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘SCML’). SCML is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo Markets assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.