Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
After Gold XAUUSD spot failed to take out all time high earlier this month it got sold off down to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at around $1,895 where it has bounced somewhat. Seems as if the buyers have run out of power at the 0.682 retracement at around $1,965.
Expect Gold XAUUSD to be stuck in this range for maybe a week or two. However, 16th March trough at 1.895 could come under pressure and if breaking below next support is at $1,848.
With RSI showing no divergence it indicates we should see a move higher. A move above $1,965 could lead to a renewed test of all-time highs. With resistance at $2,000 i.e. the 0.618 retracement.
Keep an eye on the RSI. Breaking above its falling trendline could be first indication of a breakout from the $1,895-1,965 range.
Almost identical picture (to Gold) Silver XAGUSD spot retraced “only” 0.5 of the February-March bull move to around $24.45. However, that retracement could be extended with the past two days move the 0.50 retracement seems to come under pressure. A downwards move to the 0.618 at around $23.90 retracement and the 200 SMA is not unlikely.
To resume uptrend XAGUSD needs to take out $25.85
If Palladium is the Canary in the Coal mine then there could be more downside for Gold and Silver. Palladium has dropped below its 0.618 Fibo retracement hovering between its 100 and 200 Daily SMA.
RSI is below 40 showing negative sentiment and Bollinger Bands are expanding which indicate further down side can be expected.
For Palladium to reverse the down trend a break above $2.639 is needed
Platinum XPTUSD spot showing almost identical scenario to Palladium. After break rising trend line selling pressure intensified. RSI below 40 and Bollinger Bands expanding, short term down trend confirmed. Some support around $950.
The end of the road
Emboldened by surging crude oil prices, Saudi Arabia makes waves on the international stage, as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman manages to create a World Champions League, after buying the UEFA Champion League franchise.
As the world embraces GLP-1 obesity wonder drugs, the people next in line to get a prescription stop caring about dieting and exercising, figuring that the drug will later solve all of their weight-related health problems.
With the US budget deficit spiraling above 10% of the GDP, the government is desperate to foster demand for US Treasuries. Under intense pressure from the White House, Congress makes income from government bonds tax-free.
After a criminal group deploys the most deceptive AI deepfake ever seen, generative AI becomes a national security threat. With public distrust soaring, governments crack down with harsh new laws, puncturing the AI hype.
To fix the divergence in the global trade and financial system, the largest deficit countries unite to negotiate new world trade terms. For surplus countries, the reset of the global economic model is a painful adjustment.
As discontent with Biden and Trump rises to fever pitch, Robert F. Kennedy Jr sees his support rising inexorably in the polls. On November 5, Kennedy wins the US presidential election, ushering in a new era in US politics.
Stepping up Japan's economic transformation in 2024, PM Kishida brings in a host of populist policies to boost domestic demand. As the GDP growth rate hits 7%, the BoJ is forced to abandons its yield curve control policy.
As people wake up to how little tax Europe’s billionaires are actually paying, the EU Commission implements a wealth tax of 2%. The tax sends shockwaves through Europe's luxury industry, with luxury giant LVMH plunging 40%.