Outrageous Predictions
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Katrin Wagner
Head of Investment Content Switzerland
Chief Investment Strategist
Friday’s selloff looked ugly at the index level.
The Nasdaq 100 fell close to 5%, the S&P 500 was down 2.6%, and semiconductor-linked stocks were hit even harder. For investors glancing only at the headline index numbers, it may have felt like everything was falling together.
But that was not quite true.
The selloff was broad across AI-linked names, semiconductors and high-growth technology, but it was not broad across the entire market. Some sectors not only held up, they actually rose.
That is the important message for investors.
The immediate trigger was the US jobs report.
May nonfarm payrolls came in stronger than expected, with the economy adding 172,000 jobs versus expectations closer to 80,000–85,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.3%. On the surface, that is good news for the economy. But for markets, it was uncomfortable because stronger labour data makes it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut rates soon.
That matters because when the Fed “put” looks further away, investors become less willing to pay high valuations for long-duration growth stocks. And right now, AI has become one of the market’s biggest long-duration growth trades.
But the real truth is that the jobs report was only the spark. There was already a lot of nervousness sitting under the surface.
A few things came together at once:
For portfolios, the key point is that AI was under pressure, but diversification still worked.
The headline index moves made the selloff look broad-based, but under the surface there was meaningful dispersion. Consumer staples, healthcare, utilities, real estate, financials and other cash-flow-oriented areas held up better, and in some cases rose.
That is the main takeaway from Friday: when one dominant market theme comes under pressure, exposure to different sectors and risk drivers can help cushion portfolios.
Diversification did not remove the volatility, but it helped reduce the impact of a concentrated AI-led selloff.
Sector index: S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index: +1.6%
Large-cap names that stood out:
Why it mattered: staples were among the clearest winners on Friday. The move was not just one or two names — it was broad across household products, beverages, packaged food and personal care.
That tells us investors were rotating toward businesses with steadier demand, pricing power and less dependence on AI capital spending or long-duration growth expectations.
These are not exciting businesses. But in a selloff, tissues, toothpaste, Coke and cereal can suddenly look very clever.
Sector ETF: Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF, XLV: +0.6%
Large-cap names that stood out:
Why it mattered: healthcare offered investors something the market wanted on Friday: earnings visibility, defensive demand and less direct exposure to the AI hardware cycle.
The gains were spread across pharma, managed care and healthcare services, suggesting this was not just a single-stock move.
Eli Lilly’s resilience is also notable given its already strong run, showing that investors were still willing to hold quality growth in healthcare when the broader market was punishing crowded AI and high-duration tech.
Healthcare can still face risks from regulation, drug pricing and trial outcomes, but on Friday it worked as a useful portfolio stabiliser.
Sector ETF: Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF, XLU: +0.9%
Large-cap names that stood out:
Why it mattered: utilities benefited as investors looked for regulated cash flows, income and lower earnings volatility.
This is also an interesting pocket because electricity demand can still be linked to long-term structural themes like AI infrastructure. But utilities do not trade in the same way as high-multiple AI stocks. They can offer a different type of exposure: steadier, regulated and less dependent on earnings perfection.
Sector index: S&P 500 Real Estate Index: +0.7%
Large-cap names that stood out:
Why it mattered: real estate is usually sensitive to interest rates, so the sector’s gain was notable given the higher-yield backdrop.
The resilience likely reflected demand for income-oriented assets, defensive cash flows and less exposure to the crowded AI trade. Healthcare REITs such as Ventas and Welltower also stood out, showing that investors were still willing to own property segments linked to more stable long-term demand.
This adds another layer to the diversification message: even in a selloff led by AI and higher-rate fears, some income-focused equity sectors still worked. Real estate was not a perfect hedge, but it helped show that “equities” were not all moving in one direction.
Sector ETF: Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF, XLF: +0.2%
Large-cap names that stood out:
Why it mattered: higher yields can hurt expensive growth stocks, but they can support parts of financials through the net interest income channel.
Berkshire also acted like a classic quality/value ballast: cash flows, balance sheet strength and less dependence on the AI hype cycle.
This was not a huge rally in financials, but in a market where the AI-heavy parts of the index were being sold aggressively, even modest resilience mattered.
Not all traditional hedges worked.
That matters because Friday’s selloff was not just a classic risk-off move. It was also a higher-rate scare.
When yields rise, expensive growth stocks can fall, but long-duration bonds can also struggle. So the portfolio protection did not mainly come from gold, bonds or crypto. It came from equity exposure that was not tied to the same AI, momentum and long-duration growth trade.
Many investors think they are diversified because they own 20 or 30 stocks.
But if most of those stocks are exposed to the same theme — AI, semiconductors, mega-cap tech, cloud, data centres or high-growth software — then the portfolio may not be as diversified as it looks.
A portfolio can have many names but still have one main risk.
Friday was a good example. Investors may have owned chip stocks, cloud stocks, AI software stocks, data-centre names and high-growth tech platforms. On paper, those are different businesses. In a selloff, they can behave like one big trade.
That is why diversification should not only be about sectors or number of holdings. It should also be about risk drivers.
A more balanced portfolio usually includes exposure to different forces:
The point is not that every bucket will always work. They will not.
The point is that they should not all fail for the same reason.
Investors do not need to abandon AI because of one bad session. Structural themes can remain attractive even after sharp corrections.
But expectations matter.
When a stock or sector has already priced in strong growth, strong margins, strong demand, flawless execution and supportive interest rates, the margin for disappointment becomes very small. Even good results can disappoint if investors were expecting great results.
That appears to be part of what happened on Friday. The issue was not simply that AI companies suddenly became weak businesses. The issue was that the market had become less forgiving.
For investors, this is the key takeaway: a strong theme can still become a crowded trade.
Friday’s selloff was not a reason to panic. But it was a useful stress test.
Investors may want to ask three simple questions:
This includes not only obvious chip names, but also software, cloud, power, data-centre and mega-cap tech exposure.
Higher rates can pressure expensive growth stocks, bonds, gold and other long-duration assets. Companies with steady cash flows, pricing power and strong balance sheets may be more resilient.
The best diversifiers often look boring during bull markets. They only become interesting when the favourite trade stops working.
Friday’s selloff was not just about AI stocks falling. It was about concentration risk being exposed.
The index moves made it look like everything was falling, but underneath the surface, several parts of the market were still working. Staples, healthcare, utilities, real estate, financials and value-oriented quality all showed that diversification still has a role, even in a market obsessed with growth and innovation.
The lesson is not to own less of the future.
It is to make sure the future is not the only thing your portfolio owns.