COT update: Dollar longs jump as funds pivot to Brent, grains and softs amid war-driven demand

The latest COT reporting week to 31 March saw broad and strong gains across sectors and individual commodities. The move was led by a 6% rebound in precious metals, alongside 4% gains in both energy and industrial metals, while nine out of 13 agricultural commodities traded higher.

At the individual level, Brent crude led with a 10% gain, followed by silver (+7.7%), gas oil and gold (both +5.4%), and wheat (+5.2%).

Managed money positioning showed a mixed response to this strength. Short selling in WTI was offset by fresh long accumulation in Brent, while diesel contracts saw profit-taking amid elevated prices and volatility. In metals, the strong rebound in precious metals failed to attract significant new longs, whereas copper saw fresh buying for the first time in 15 weeks.

Agriculture—led by grains—has delivered a strong monthly performance, supported by adverse weather and second-round effects from the energy crisis. This has lifted both prices and demand across soybeans, corn, wheat, sugar, and cotton.

As mentioned, the grains sector has undergone a dramatic shift in recent months. A 12% gain in the Bloomberg Commodity Grains Index since the January low has forced a reversal in positioning, with the net position across six major crops flipping from a 182,000-contract short to a 490,000-contract long—a three-year high in the latest reporting week.

Looking at positioning trends over the past five weeks, the impact of the Iran war is clearly visible. Demand has increased across all sectors, with the exception of a modest reduction in precious and industrial metals. Overall, total managed money positions across 25 major commodity futures have surged 78% to 1.9 million contracts. The most notable changes have occurred in crude oil—particularly Brent—grains led by corn, and softs such as sugar and cotton, where previously elevated short positions have been aggressively reduced.