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COT update: Dollar longs jump as funds pivot to Brent, grains and softs amid war-driven demand
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Key points:
- Our weekly Commitment of Traders update highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across forex and commodities during the week ending Tuesday, 31 March 2026.
- In FX, the Middle East conflict continued to underpin the dollar, lifting the net long to a four-month high primarily due to euro long capitulation
- Another week of strong commodity gains saw managed money accounts continuing to build exposure in Brent crude, grains, sugar and cotton.
- In metals, the rebound in precious metals failed to attract significant new longs, whereas copper saw fresh buying for the first time in 15 weeks..
Forex:
The Middle East conflict continued to underpin the dollar in the reporting week to Tuesday, 31 March. Broad-based weakness against the greenback drove a 55% increase in gross dollar longs against eight IMM futures, lifting the total to a four-month high of USD 11.6 billion, from a USD 19 billion short just before the war began. Buying was most pronounced against the CAD and EUR. In the latter, the net position returned to neutral after reaching a three-year high less than two months ago - highlighting the speed and scale of March’s repositioning back into the dollar as geopolitical risk triggered widespread uncertainty across markets. Elsewhere, the JPY short extended to a fresh 20-month high, while the AUD long reached a new 13-year high.
Commodities
The latest COT reporting week to 31 March saw broad and strong gains across sectors and individual commodities. The move was led by a 6% rebound in precious metals, alongside 4% gains in both energy and industrial metals, while nine out of 13 agricultural commodities traded higher.
At the individual level, Brent crude led with a 10% gain, followed by silver (+7.7%), gas oil and gold (both +5.4%), and wheat (+5.2%).
Managed money positioning showed a mixed response to this strength. Short selling in WTI was offset by fresh long accumulation in Brent, while diesel contracts saw profit-taking amid elevated prices and volatility. In metals, the strong rebound in precious metals failed to attract significant new longs, whereas copper saw fresh buying for the first time in 15 weeks.
Agriculture—led by grains—has delivered a strong monthly performance, supported by adverse weather and second-round effects from the energy crisis. This has lifted both prices and demand across soybeans, corn, wheat, sugar, and cotton.
As mentioned, the grains sector has undergone a dramatic shift in recent months. A 12% gain in the Bloomberg Commodity Grains Index since the January low has forced a reversal in positioning, with the net position across six major crops flipping from a 182,000-contract short to a 490,000-contract long—a three-year high in the latest reporting week.
Looking at positioning trends over the past five weeks, the impact of the Iran war is clearly visible. Demand has increased across all sectors, with the exception of a modest reduction in precious and industrial metals. Overall, total managed money positions across 25 major commodity futures have surged 78% to 1.9 million contracts. The most notable changes have occurred in crude oil—particularly Brent—grains led by corn, and softs such as sugar and cotton, where previously elevated short positions have been aggressively reduced.
What is the Commitments of Traders report?
The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.
Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and other
Financials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and other
Forex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators)
The main reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of speculators, such as hedge funds and trend-following CTA's are:
- They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged
- This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
- It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming
Do note that this group tends to anticipate, accelerate, and amplify price changes that have been set in motion by fundamentals. Being followers of momentum, this strategy often sees this group of traders buy into strength and sell into weakness, meaning that they are often found holding the biggest long near the peak of a cycle or the biggest short position ahead of a through in the market.
This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..
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