US critical minerals impact on copper, silver, and platinum

Copper, silver and platinum have surged to the top of the commodities leaderboard as the US critical minerals agenda pulls material toward the US, triggering a reshaping of global trade flows and raising concerns about shortfalls elsewhere in markets already defined by tight fundamentals and firm demand. Their addition or reinforcement on the US critical minerals list has created a powerful new price driver: the growing likelihood of tariffs and targeted trade measures in 2026. This is already prompting traders and producers to redirect shipments toward the US, tightening availability elsewhere and reinforcing the outperformance visible in the latest performance table. Gold, by contrast, lacks this tariff-linked catalyst, leaving it strong but lagging on a relative basis.

Critical minerals: from bureaucratic label to market mover

The US critical minerals list has expanded meaningfully in recent updates, with copper and silver added alongside platinum and the broader PGM suite, which already held "critical" status. For markets, the significance goes far beyond classification. Once a commodity enters this category, it becomes plugged into a series of policy levers: Section 232 investigations, strategic stockpiling, fast-track permitting, and tax-credit eligibility for domestic processing. Most importantly, it increases the probability of tariffs or quotas being introduced if the US government concludes that import dependence poses a national-security risk.

Trade flows are being uprooted

The prospect of tariffs being introduced next year has, for several months, driven a near-continuous redirection of the mentioned metals toward the US, the result being an emerging dislocation across metals markets. This has created an overhang of stranded inventory onshore while tightening conditions elsewhere. In effect, tariff optionality has become a major—and in some cases dominant—driver of physical flows.

Merchants, refiners and fabricators are pushing more material toward the US in anticipation of a potential tariff-driven price premium. This mirrors the pattern seen during past Section 232 cycles in steel and aluminium: once the market senses that Washington might weaponise trade policy, holding inventory inside the US becomes a strategic asset in itself.

The effect is twofold:

US inventories and premia rise: More metal is landing at COMEX-linked warehouses and US ports, so being long physical metal in the US is effectively a low-cost hedge against a future policy shock.

Rest-of-world availability tightens: Redirected cargoes mean fewer spot units in Europe and Asia. This is pushing up premia outside the US and contributing to an emerging and unusual backwardation visible in key industrial and precious metals. The market is developing a subtle two-tier structure: US "policy-risk" prices versus a rest-of-world market that is tight simply because supply is being pulled away.

This developing fragmentation neatly aligns with the outsized price performance of copper, silver and platinum – the three metals most closely tied to the current US policy cycle.

Copper: the new strategic backbone

Copper’s addition to the critical minerals list was long expected, but its market impact has accelerated in recent months. The metal sits at the heart of grid expansion, EVs and defence technologies, and the US remains highly import-dependent. With the Section 232 review covering copper and related products, traders have become increasingly reluctant to be short US exposure.

The result is visible in the numbers with LME copper prices hitting a record high this week above USD 11,300 per ton, a 28% year-to-date gain, to a large extent being supported by tightening market conditions outside the US. A development that is unfolding despite continued signs of an economic slowdown in China, the world's top consumer of copper. While less explosive than silver or platinum, copper’s rally is being built on more durable foundations – structural deficits, mine disruptions and now a powerful policy overlay that tilts trade flows in the US’s favour.

While total exchange-monitored copper stockpiles hit a seven-year high last week (636 kt—on paper, a bearish signal), the geographical split tells a different story. A record 60% of all visible exchange-monitored inventory is now concentrated in US warehouses, despite the US only accounting for less than 6% of global demand.

Silver: from high-beta gold to policy-sensitive tech metal

Silver’s elevation to critical-mineral status is proving transformative. The metal was already supported by structural deficits driven by solar build-out, electronics and constrained mine supply. But the tariff angle has turbocharged its rise. Shipment patterns are changing, with LBMA-grade bars increasingly diverted toward US buyers keen to secure physical exposure ahead of next year’s tariff decision.

Silver has by now almost doubled in price this year with the bulk of the rally occurring since August, with the past couple of weeks proving particularly explosive. The latest extension being supported by news that stockpiles monitored by futures exchanges in Shanghai had slumped to a 10-year low, and strengthened further on Friday when the break above USD 54.50 triggered fresh momentum buying and short covering from leveraged traders.

Silver is no longer trading primarily as a monetary metal or high-beta gold instrument. It is being repriced as a strategic technology input with a potential US tariff premium embedded.

Platinum: a critical metal rediscovered

Platinum’s long-standing inclusion on the US critical minerals list is finally receiving the market attention it arguably deserved. With supply concentrated in South Africa and Russia, and with rising strategic relevance through hydrogen technologies, the metal sits close enough to the Section 232 review process to benefit from the same pre-emptive stockpiling behaviour.

Its remarkable performance this year, currently up 81%, started back in May when an improved fundamental outlook, ie supply being challenged at a time of robust demand, triggered a technical breakout of downtrend that started back in 2008. Since then platinum has surged from around USD 1,000 per ounce to a 12 year high at USD 1,730 a level that has now offered resistance on two occasions and which may signal some additional consolidation.  However, the rally seen this year which has lowered the gold-platinum ratio from 3.54-1 to 2.58-1 currently, reflects both genuine supply tightness and the growing tendency to move physical metal into the US to capture potential policy optionality. Platinum is becoming a classic beneficiary of the new fragmented trade architecture.

And gold? Strong, but without the policy catalyst

Gold remains fundamentally supported by falling rates, fiscal debt concerns, geopolitics and persistent central-bank demand. However, unlike silver or platinum, it is not on the critical minerals list and is not part of the Section 232 tariff process. Without a tariff-linked tailwind or flow distortion, gold has recently underperformed its white-metal peers in relative terms despite an impressive 57% year-to-date return.

Conclusion: 

The US critical minerals agenda is no longer a footnote – it is actively reshaping global supply chains. Copper, silver and platinum are the front-line beneficiaries of this shift, buoyed by a combination of structural tightness, strategic relevance and the anticipation of 2026 tariffs. The performance table captures this clearly: three metals at the intersection of security policy and scarcity are leaving the rest of the sector behind.