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Between a Greenland rock and a JGB hard place.
Summary: Today, looking at markets in a bad place on concerns for US-Europe relations over Trump's Greenland ambitions, a situation that could fester for global markets even if the European position collapses and there is no major escalation of tariffs or other measures between the two sides. Also, the Japanese government bond market is flashing bright red now after a meltdown in the longest dated JGB's overnight - meaning that the next policy move is incoming, with no attractive options from which to choose. This and more in today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
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Today’s Links
This article is absurd, right?
Surprised to see WSJ printing a scenario involving a US invasion of Greenland. The idea of military confrontation on Greenland seems farfetched, but some of the global fallouts from a dissolved NATO are worth considering if that is where we are headed on a longer term time frame, even if we avoid the specific Greenland scenario in the article.
A great bear.
A great voice of sanity and morality in a crazy world, Carson Block is a guest on Adam Taggart’s Thoughtful Money, talking everything from the difficult art of short selling in modern markets, whether a Mag7 short is a good idea, observations on international markets and more.
Time hasn’t always been what it is now.
Philosophical article on the way we experience time - mind-bending and worth some downtime to think about. Love it.
AI coming for all media? In that case it’s been nice knowing you…
I suspect there is a ways to go for humans just yet - certainly hope so. We’re the ones that have been training the AI, after all.
Chart of the Day - JPY and JGB’s
Below is what a devaluation of a country’s currency and its public debt (the same thing, often) look like. Consider your return as a US-based investor in that JGB over the last several years - falling from 95 to 38 and the currency falling by a third as well. After this latest steep sell-off in JGB’s, the next and very large policy move is incoming to halt the slide - will it succeed? Anything that prompts mass redirection of capital back to Japan is a liquidity draw on the rest of the world, regardless.
Questions and comments, please!
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