Morning BrewSeptember 25 2023
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Will the USD gain the 11th week in a row?
Markets spent Friday digesting the central bank decisions and the higher yields. We are heading in to a week that is thin with data but lots of potential for volatility.
The key data this week is expected on Friday, with the Feds favorite Inflation measure the PCE, and the EU Inflation. Next to the data, the US Debt ceiling is approaching dangerous grounds, with the beginning of October, government agencies will start shutting down – so far no agreements seem imminent though.
Ford said yesterday, there was also no agreement in sight with the striking United Auto Workers union.
Equity Indexes moved little on Friday with the Dow at -0.3%, the S&P 500-0.2 and the Nasdaq -0.1%. with the most interesting US listed Chinese Stocks like JD, BIDU or BABA.
US Yields remain near the highs and pull the USD to the 10th consecutive weekly gain, a very rare occurrence. USDJPY remains near Intervention territory at 148.410, EURUSD is holding above the important 1.0635 (1.0645 now) and GBPUSD is at 1.2235.
This morning, Risk seems to be on the rise with the US 500 at 4330, the GER40 15540 and the US Tech100 NAS 14750. The Swiss 20 trades at 11005.itcoin fell 2% over the weekend and is at 26000.
Overall sentiment and political news out of the US will be key until the PCE on Friday will give the first big clue about the Feds path into Q4 and also the next earnings season.
Trading volumes remain subdued meaning the is little conviction at the moment.
- Data Germany IFO
- Data: Japan PPI, US Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales
- Data US Durable Goods,
- Data Australia Retail Sales, EU Consumer Confidence, DE CPI, US GDP, Initial Jobless Claims,
- Data Japan CPI, UK GDP, Swiss KOF; DE unemployment, EU HICP, US PCE, University of Michigan
Physically Settled Futures
- NGV3 will expire 26 Sep 2023 at 07:30 GMT
- TTFMV3 will expire 27 Sep 2023 at 09:00 GMT
- NATGASUSOCT23 will expire 25 Sep 2023 at 15:00 GMT
- CHINA50SEP23 will expire 27 Sep 2023 at 02:00 GMT
- GASOLINEUSOCT23 will expire 27 Sep 2023 at 15:00 GMT
- GOLDOCT23 will expire 27 Sep 2023 at 15:00 GMT
- HEATINGOILOCT23 will expire 27 Sep 2023 at 15:00 GMT
- SOYBEANMEALOCT23 will expire 27 Sep 2023 at 15:00 GMT
- SOYBEANOILOCT23 will expire 27 Sep 2023 at 15:00 GMT
- SUGARNYOCT23 will expire 27 Sep 2023 at 15:00 GMT
- TAIWAN95SEP23 will expire 27 Sep 2023 at 02:00 GMT
- HK50SEP23 will expire 28 Sep 2023 at 02:00 GMT
- SINGAPORESEP23 will expire 28 Sep 2023 at 02:00 GMT