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Morning Brew September 22 2022
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Fed Hawkish, the SNB and the BoE coming up - Will the SNB be as hawkish as feared?
Good Morning
The Fed hiked 75 basis points yesterday and stated it was dead-set on fighting inflation. This means rates rises faster and higher. The policy rate is seen to rise to 4.4% end 2022 and 4.6 at the top in 2023.
While the hike had been priced in. the hawkish comments had not been and stocks traded lower and the US Dollar gained. The UD Indexes lsot app 1.7% yesterday and the Futures continued to grind lower.
The US 500 is at 3775, the USTECH100 at 11570 and the US 30 at 30140. The GER40 at 12580.
The Dollar index rose to above 111 to trade 111.50, EURUSD 0.9850, GBPUSD at 1.1336 and USDJPY 144.98. Bold and Silver are trading at 1660, on support and 19.40. Gold cannot hold on to the gains after Putin`s mobilization.
ECB`s Schnabel said. the euro zone is facing a recession but inflation is still far too high, so interest rates need to keep going up,
The Bank of Japan followed expectations and did not change rates, with the high Yen, an intervention remains likely in the near future.
Today, all eyes will be on the Swiss National Bank at 9:30 and the Bank of England at 13:00, both CET. The Turkish Central Bank will also announce rates at 13:00. At 14:30 the usual US employment data will be released and at 16:00 the EU Consumer confidence.
The SNB is seen to hike by 75 BPS by the analysts, Rates are showing a hike of 100 with a probability of 98%. The BoE should hike by 75 BPS.
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