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Morning Brew JSeptember 18 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Central Bank Week
Good Morning
Heading into Central Bank week, US yields are on the rise. The Federal Reserve will announce rates on Wednesdays and traders are certain they will hold rates for now and await further data. There is currently less than 50% chance the Fed will hike rates this year. In December, 10 bais points are priced in and 3 cuts by December 2024.
Also on Wednesday, the Chinese PBOC will set 1 and 5 year rates.
Thursday we will see rate decisions from Switzerland, the Bank of England, Norway Sweden as well as Turkey. The UK and Switzerland and Turkey are expected to hike.
The USD Index is trading a little weaker, Indexes are friendly and Precious Metals gain over the weekend.
The USD Index has had 8 weeks of gains, which is very unusual and caused hedge funds to reduce their USD Shorts last week
China Evergrande`s shares took another hit today after management arrested several staff.
On Friday, Adobe shares dropped by 4.2% after earnings, while Nvidia, Amazon, and Microsoft each declined by 3%, 3%, and 2.5%, respectively but indications are friendly this morning with the US500 at 4456, GER40 15865 and the US tech 100 NAS at 15226.
Next to the rate decisions, a possible Biden Xi summit may be planned acc to the financial times, Uranium is trading at 12 year highs and oil is strong. The labor disputes in the US as well as Australia are continuing without any obvious solution.
Traders are not fully sure where to look for the next big driver as it seems the inflation / rate topic may be fading for now.
Trade safely
Tuesday
- Data: EU HICP, US Housing Starts, CA CPI
Wednesday
- Data Japan Trade, China Rates, UK CPI, US FOMC Rate decision & press conference
Thusday
- Data Australia GDP. Swiss Sweden, Norway, UK and Turkey rate decision, US Initial Jobless claims, Philly Fed and Home sales,,
Friday
- Data Japan CPI, UK Retail Sales, International PMI
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