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Morning Brew September 10 2026
Summary: Energy Expensive, ECB up, "Trump dividend" to swing midterms?
Good morning.
Oil is back above USD 100 as the conflict with Iran escalates, pushing global yields higher and keeping equities under pressure.
Washington and Tehran have carried out their largest wave of attacks on shipping since the war began. Reports that senior White House advisers have warned President Donald Trump that the conflict could continue through the remainder of his presidency underline how limited the path to a quick resolution now appears.
Energy shares are benefiting from the move in crude, but the broader market is increasingly focused on the inflation consequences. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has reached its highest level since November 2023, even after the Treasury expanded planned purchases of 10- to 20-year debt to USD 6 billion.
Wall Street moved lower. The S&P 500 fell 0.5%, the Nasdaq lost 0.6% and the Dow declined 0.8% as higher oil and yields weighed on sentiment.
Meta was the standout, rising more than 6% after launching an artificial-intelligence assistant designed to carry out tasks such as sending emails, selling a car and arranging travel. Apple slipped 0.3% after holding its first product launch under new chief executive John Ternus. Alphabet fell 2.3% after announcing at least USD 15.1 billion of artificial-intelligence infrastructure investment in Finland, including a major nuclear-power supply agreement.
Europe was weaker. The Stoxx 600 fell 1.4%, its largest one-day decline since early July. The DAX lost 1.7%, the FTSE 100 declined 1.3% for a fourth consecutive down day, and the CAC 40 also moved lower. Industrials and consumer discretionary led the losses.
Inditex fell 3.6% after first-half earnings missed expectations, Rheinmetall lost 3.8% and ASML declined 1.3%. UBS also said it will close its Shenzhen-based Chinese fund-sales unit at the end of September after struggling to gain scale in a crowded domestic wealth-management market.The Expected volatility in Novartis failed to materialize, the stock basically stuck to the 111
Sinopec’s research arm expects China`s oil demand to fall by around 600,000 barrels a day, or 8.9%, in 2026, marking a third consecutive annual decline. Refining capacity is also forecast to shrink by as much as 5.5% by 2030.
The ECB is today’s main scheduled event. A 25-basis-point hike is almost fully priced, so the press conference and forward guidance will matter more than the decision itself. Markets imply a year-end policy rate near 2.66%, equivalent to almost two additional increases from current levels.
In the United States, markets assign roughly a 60% probability to a rate hike next week and price around one and a half increases by year-end. Today’s PPI and jobless-claims data will therefore be watched closely ahead of tomorrow’s CPI release.
Higher yields have failed to spark demand for the U.S. dollar. The USD Index is hovering around 98.75, with EUR/USD at 1.1635, GBP/USD at 1.3550 and USD/JPY at 153.50. Gold and silver are taking the rise in yields well, trading at 4,410 and 67.50, while Bitcoin is near 78,000. The question of whether the Swiss franc will replace the yen as a funding currency is taking centre stage. So far, however, FX moves do not indicate massive flows: USD/CHF is at 0.8090 and EUR/CHF at 0.9415.
U.S. politics are adding another unusual headline. President Trump proposed a USD 5,000 “dividend” for every American adult if Republicans retain control of Congress in the November midterms. With roughly 270 million adults, the proposal could cost around USD 1.35 trillion, and it remains unclear how it would be funded or implemented.
Today’s focus: Oil above USD 100, Middle East headlines, the ECB decision and press conference, U.S. producer prices and initial jobless claims, earning by Adobe and Acrobat . Tomorrow brings UK GDP, U.S. CPI and preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Nex^t week we are continuing the central Bank cycle
Thursday, 10 September 2026
Macro: Germany final CPI; U.S. PPI and initial jobless claims.
Central banks / speakers: ECB rate decision and press conference.
Corporate earnings: Oracle. Adobe
Friday, 11 September 2026
Macro: UK GDP; U.S. CPI; preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment.
Central banks / speakers: No major central-bank decision scheduled.
Corporate earnings: No major global large-cap focus.
Monday, 14 September 2026
Macro: Canada CPI;
Tuesday, 15 September 2026
Macro: China industrial production and retail sales; UK labour-market data; Germany ZEW economic sentiment;
Corporate earnings: Trip.com.
Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Macro: US Rate Decision UK CPI; U.S. retail sales and PPI.
Central banks / speakers: Federal Reserve rate decision, economic projections and press conference.
Corporate earnings: Lennar.
Thursday, 17 September 2026
Macro: U.S. housing starts, building permits and initial jobless claims.
Central banks / speakers: Bank of England rate decision; Bank of Japan meeting begins.
Macro: UK retail sales; U.S. industrial production and capacity utilisation.