Morning Brew October 20 2023
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Dollar and Rates deouple - What is next?
Investors with a high conviction in Tesla now have the opportunity to buy more stocks cheaper as the shares fall more than 9% after earnings. Netflix gains 16% after gaining new subscribers.
Jerome Powell gave a somewhat mixed message yesterday, central bankers were moving carefully on policy after aggressive rate hikes last year, but that the economy's strength and continued tight labor markets could warrant further rate hikes.
Yields rose to near 5% and weighed on equities. The Dow closed down 0.8%, the S&P 500 down 0.9%, and the Nasdaq down 1%. The GER40 fell to 14940, Asian shares plumbed a fresh 11-month low. nevertheless, the USD Index fell to 106.30 nevertheless.
EUIRUSD is trading at 1.0575, GBPUSD 1.2117 and USDJPY 149.80. XAUUSD rose to 1978 and Silver less to 22.95 . The Gold Silver Ratio, XAUXAG rose to 86,30.
Kim Cramer did a technical study on Tesla and Netflix after earnings here: Tesla may see the next key support at 214.
Our Steen Jacobsen sees a paradigm shift approaching as the US Dollar has de3coupled from the rise in yields. JP Morgan famously said in 1923 (testimony to Congress) Gold is money - everything else is paper.
He if this trend continues, Gold, Energy ( and energy stocks) as well as the Swiss Franc should be the safest assets.
With today’s agenda fairly empty, traders will focus on yields, US Politics and the situation in the middle east.
Expect either a dull day or a very volatile one – Trade safely, consider smaller than usual positions or optionality to – in the worst case - survive to trade another day.