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Morning Brew November 30 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning.
Henry Kissinger, died at age 100.
We have a Key day ahead of us:
Indexes remained little changed but, we saw some interesting moves in the GER40, the German Benchmark gained almost 200 points to 16200, FootLocker rose 16%, GM 9% in regular trading and Salesforce 9% after market.
10 Year Yields are holding at 4.27 and the USD Index at 102.88 – EURUSD 1.0965 and GBPUSD 1.2685 and USDJPY 147.10. Gold and Silver remain at 2043 and 25.05.
China's manufacturing activity shrank for a second straight month in November
According to X, Bill Ackman is betting on the Fed lowering rates in March of 2024,right now, that is priced in with a probability of 40% by rate traders a change in that expectation would cauise a strong shift and today that could happen.
Absolute key today will be the Feds preferred inflation measurement the PCE index at 14:30 expected at 3.5% - if there is any surprise there will be sharp moves and change the technical picture. Gold seems on track for a close above 2000 for the first month end ever
We will also see some month end position adjustment after an amazing month so far. European inflation data will be released as well but only be really impactful if there is a major surprise.
Thursday
- Data China PMI, Norway GDP, Swiss KOF , France CPI, Germany Unemployment, EU Inflation, US PCE & Initial Jobless Claims, Canada GDP
- Earnings Royal Bank of Canada, Dell, Marvell
Friday
- Data Japan Unemployment Rate, China Caixin PMI, International PMI, Canada Unemployment rate
- Earnings National Bank of Canada, Bank of Montreal,
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
HOZ3 will expire 30 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
RBZ3 will expire 30 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
Expiring CFDs
LIVECATTLEDEC23 will expire 30 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
OILUKJAN24 will expire 30 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT