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Morning Brew November 15 2024
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: US Retail Sales Up but Transition Team the Elephant in the room
Good morning,
Comments by Jerome Powell a rate cut may not be required due to the strength of the economy boosted yields and the US Dollar while equities pause at high levels.
The probability of a US Rate cut in December meeting is now only 62% after it was seen at above 90% just a week ago, the 10 Year Yields are approaching the key 4.5 level.
The FX markets are spectacular at the moment, trading in severe swings and near key levels: The USD Index is trading around 107 at the moment, if we break above 107.35 higher, there is room towards the 109, EURUSD is 1.0550, GBPUSD 1.2680 and USDJPY 156.10. Gold broke below 2600 and could find support at 2530, Silver is 30.35 having found support at 30. Bitcoin remains high but is struggling to break above the 90k it seems.
US Indexes closed lower by around half a percentage point at continuously high volumes, the US 500 is trading at 5920, the US Tech 100 NAS 20745, the US 30 43570 and the GER40 19158.
EV makers lost on news the US after a Reuters Report that the Trump administration was planning to abolish the the $7,500 consumer tax credit for electric-vehicle purchases. Tesla closed app 6% lower, Rivan gave up 14%.
Charu too a look at the positioning of Berkshire Hathaway.
Warren Buffett’s Portfolio Shifts: Strategic Cuts, Modest New Additions, and a Cautious Outlook
Key points:
- Buffett’s Q3 Portfolio Moves Continue to Reflect a Cautious Stance: The latest 13F filing by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway indicates a significant sell-off in some of the conglomerate’s largest holdings.
- Reducing Major Stakes in Apple and Bank of America: Buffett has scaled back Berkshire’s positions in key stocks, including a 25% reduction in Apple and a 23% cut in Bank of America.
- Short-Term Bet in Ulta Beauty: Despite adding Ulta Beauty to Berkshire’s portfolio in Q2, Buffett exited nearly his entire position this quarter, marking a rare short-term investment for the value-driven investor.
- New Bets in Domino’s Pizza and Pool Corp: Berkshire added Domino’s Pizza and Pool Corp to its roster, showing Buffett’s interest in consumer-centric businesses.
- A Big Seller Again in Q3: For the third consecutive quarter, Berkshire was a net seller, selling nearly $36 billion in stocks and buying just $1.5 billion, according to its 10-Q report.
I will be travelling Monday and Tuesday, if you like to prepare for the Nvidia earnings via options, take a look at Koens article.
Chinese data was mixed over night, while Retail Sales came stronger, factory output fell and houseprices remain under pressure.
We are awaiting the US Retail Sales as main economic event today but the Trump Transition team remains the elephant in the room. Some of the recent nominations are on the controversial side and very hard-line.
Friday
- Data JP GDP, UK GDP, US Retail Sales
- Earnings, Alibaba
Monday
- Data Japan Machine Orders, EU Trade Balance
Tuesday
- Data EU Inflation (HICP) Canada Housing Start