Morning Brew November 12 2024

Good Morning

The US election and the Trump trade continue to dominate markets as Trumps team and policies take shape.

The S&P 500 closed above the 6000 for the first time ever, Tesla is a trillion USD Company, Coinbase rose nearly 20% as Bitcoin ant Ethereum soar to all time highs. The Dollar gains strength and precious metals remain under severe pressure.

Since the Election, the S&P is up 4% an the Nasdaq 5% and volumes remain huge at 15.4 billion shares against an already high average of 12.8 Billion.

Bitcoin reached 90.000 for the first time this morning while the dollar Index rose to 105.57, EURUSD falls to 1.0630, GBPUSD 153.80 and GBPUSD 1.2825. Gold is approaching the key support at 2600 – as Ole Hansen pointed out, as long as that level holds, the uptrend is intact. Silver is 30.35, 30 is the important level. From a trading perspective, the most interesting question seems to be if or when Bitcoin will reach the 100.000?

Trumps and likely Elon Musk’s policies seem to be taking shape, apparently Elon is a key part of the strategy meetings.

It looks like Marco Rubio will be secretary of state, which will be tough on Ukraine, Mike Waltz is seen to be National Security Advisor. Both have a tough stance on China.  Lee Zeldin to head the EPA even if he has a record on voting against environmentally friendly items. 

In a statement published via X, Trump announced to shut down the national department of education, showing signs to streamline government.

Decision  makers in the Fed are looking at all policies with great scrutiny to assess the impact on inflation. Reuters reports the Fed prepared for inflationary policies of the incoming Trump team in December 2016, way ahead of the actual change.

Today, the German Inflation came fully in line with expectations while the UK unemployment rate exceeded the fears. In Den Hague a court will decide in a case against Shell that could force the company to reduce CO2 emissions by 45%. 

Focus from here will be the German and European ZEW at 11 and any news from the US and the German Snap Election will move markets.

Trade carefully

Tuesday
- Data Germany Inflation, ZEW, UK Employment,
- Earnings: Shopify, Home Depot, On, Spotify
- Waller, Barkin, Kashkari speak

Earnings:
Wednesday
- Data US CPI,
- Earnings:  Cisco,
- Logan, Musalem, Schmid, speak

Thursday
- Data Sweden CPI, EU GDP, US Initial Jobless claims, PPI
- Earnings: Disney, JD.com
- Barkin, Kugler, Powell speak

Friday
- Data JP GDP, UK GDP, US Retail Sales
- Earnings, Alibaba