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Morning Brew March 13 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning,
Markets were extremely volatile since Friday after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and also Signature Bank. Social Media went wild with speculation of a bank run but the Fed stepped in to calm markets in another socialization of risk.
Regulators announced that SVB`s customers will have access to all their deposits today. They also added a facility for to emergency funds. The Fed also made it easier for banks to borrow from it in emergencies.
Over the weekend, short term yields fall, the expectation of rate hikes diminish. 2 year yields peaked above 5 last week and are now at 4.4%.
For the fed meeting Friday, there was an expectation of a 50BPS hike with a probability of 80% and 20% were looking for 25 BPS, right now, there is an 80% probability of a 25 Basis point hike and the remaining 20% call no change. Goldman Sachs seems to favor the latter scenario stating: "In light of the stress in the banking system, we no longer expect the FOMC to deliver a rate hike at its next meeting on March 22," The peak rate - above 5.5% last week - fell to 4.7%, a drop of some 80bps.
Risk sentiment Soared on the measures :The USD Index fell from 105.85 to 103.90, EURUSD is 1.0720, GBPUSD 1.21 and USDJPY 134.60. Gold and Silver are higher at 1857 and 20.70 after lows at 1810 and 19.90 last week.
Equities rally over the weekend with the US500 +1.2%, the US 30 +0.73, the US tech 100 +1.3% and the GER40 +1%. HSBC announced to buy the UK branch of SVB Banks should jump higher – Deutsche Bank is up 4.5% in early trading .
Bitcoin jumped more than 10% from below 20k Friday to 22500 now.
The path from here is tricky predict. Watch any action from central banks and governments while also keeping an eye on key fundamental data this week with US CPI, the PPI and Retail Sales, also Chinas Retail sales & industrial production but also the ECB rate decision.
Tuesday 14 March
- US CPI & Core CPI (Feb)
- U.K. Employment (Jan) & Payrolls (Feb)
- Australian consumer and business confidence
Wednesday 15 March
- US Retail sales (Feb)
- US PPI & Core PPI (Feb)
- Eurozone Industrial production (Jan)
- UK Budget
- Japan BoJ monetary policy meeting minutes (17-18 Jan)
- China Retail sales, industrial production, & fixed asset investment (Feb)
Thursday 16 March
- US Housing starts & building permits (Feb)
- US Initial jobless claims
- Australian employment data – jobless rate (Feb)
- ECB policy rate decision
- Japan exports (Feb)
- Japan Machinery orders (Jan)
Friday 17 March
- US Industrial production (Feb)
- US university of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey (Feb)
- UK BoE/Ipsos Inflation next 12 months (Feb)
- Japan Tertiary industry activity (Jan)
Earnings on watch this week:
- Tuesday: Volkswagen, Lennar, Foxconn
- Wednesday: Adobe, Constellation Software, BMW, E.ON, Ping An Insurance, Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc
- Thursday: FedEx, Dollar General, Enel, Li Ning
- Friday: Vonovia, Longfor, CMOC Group Lt