Morning Brew July 15 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: "Dovish Fed" stabilizes markets
Next Week I will be off and will be back the 25th with the next Morning Brew on the 26th – Safe trading over the ECB decision and earnings!
High inflation and disappointing numbers and outlooks from JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley spooked the market yesterday, driving the EURUSD below parity and causing a sharp selloff in equities. “Dovish” statements out of the Fed soothed fears of a 1% hike in 2 weeks, letting US Indexes recover. S&P 500 and the Dow closed in the red with 0.3% and 0.5% while the Nasdaq turned green (0.01%)
The earning expectation has declined to an earnings growth of just above 5% from 6.8% 2 weeks ago.
There was quite a shift, this morning the expectation is no longer 70% in favor of a 1% hike but 65% for 75 bps and only 35% for 1% based on rate futures.
This morning, Indexes are trading friendly with the Dax up 0.8% from yesterdays 17:30 close, US Futures are up 0.2%.
EURUSD is at 1.0020, GBPUSD at 1.1825 and USDJPY 139 Bitcoin remains above 20k and Gold and Silver are at 1708 and 18.30.
China's economy contracted sharply in the second quarter but retail sales exceeded expectations.
US PPI was releases at 11.3% vs. 10.7% expected.
Mario Draghi resigned yesterday after he lost support of the 5 star movement but was asked to stay on so Italian politics will remain interesting.
Today US retail Sales will be key at 14:30 followed by production data 15:15 and the University of Michigan at 16:00, also earnings by Citi, Charles Schwab, Wells Fargo and Blackrock
- Friday 15 July: Investor, Sandvik, EMS-Chemie, UnitedHealth, Wells Fargo, Charles Schwab, BlackRock, Citigroup, Progressive, US Bancorp, PNC Financial Services
- Monday 18 July: Bank of America, IBM, Goldman Sachs, Nordea
- Tuesday 19 July: Johnson & Johnson, Novartis, Lockheed Martin, Netflix, Atlas Copco, Volvo, Halliburton, Assa Abloy, Hasbro, Yara International
- Wednesday 20 July: Tesla, Abbott Laboratories, ASML, CSX, Nidex, Biogen, Baker Hughes, Kone, Volvo Car, Aker, Dassault Aviation, United Airlines, ASM International, Alfa Laval
- Thursday 21 July: Roche, Danaher, AT&T, Blackstone, SAP, Intuitive Surgical, ABB, Freeport-McMoRan, Kinder Morgan, Nucor, DR Horton, Nokia, Essity, Seagate Technology, MarketAxess
- Friday 22 July: Verizon, NextEra Energy, American Express, Schlumberger, Twitter, Danske Bank, Norsk Hydro
- Monday 25 July: NXP Semiconductors, Kuehne + Nagel, Philips, Ryanair
- Tuesday 26 July: Alphabet, Visa, LVMH, Coca-Cola, McDonald’s, UPS, Texas Instruments, Raytheon Technologies, Unilever, Christian Dior, General Electric, UBS Group, General Motors, Archer-Daniels-Midland, Southern Copper, DSV, UniCredit
- Wednesday 27 July: Microsoft, Meta, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Qualcomm, AMD, Equinor, GSK, ServiceNow, Rio Tinto, Mondelez, Boeing, Airbus, 3M, Kering, Humana, Mercedes-Benz, Ford Motor, Kraft Heinz, Shopify, BASF, Danone, Fanucm Enphase Energy, Spotify, Garmin
- Thursday 28 July: Apple, Nestle, Pfizer, Merck, L’Oreal, Shell, Comcast, Intel, Linde, TotalEnergies, Sanofi, Honeywell, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Keyence, Volkswagen, Air Liquide, Schneider Electric, Banco Santander, Valero Energy, Stellantis, Neste, BAE Systems, Arcelor Mittal
- Friday 29 July: Amazon, Exxon Mobil, P&G, Mastercard, Chevron, AbbVie, AstraZeneca, Sony, Caterpillar, Colgate-Palmolive, BNP Paribas, Twilio, Pinterest
- Physically Settled Futures:
- CLQ2 will expire on 20th July at 15:00 GMT.
- ECOQ2 will expire on 21st July at 09:00 GMT.
- NGQ2 will expire on 26th July at 19:30 GMT.
- TTFMQ2 will expire on 27th July at 09:00 GMT.
- STFQ2 will expire on 28th July at 02:00 GMT.
- EMAQ2 will expire on 28th July at 09:00 GMT.
- GCQ2, MGCQ2, XKQ2, ZLQ2, ZMQ2, ZSQ2 will expire 28th July at 15:00 GMT.
- Expiring CFDs:
- OILUSAUG22 will expire 18th July at 15:00 GMT.
- NATGASUSAUG22 will expire 25th July at 15:00 GMT.
- OILUKSEP22 will expire 29th July at 15:00 GMT.