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Morning Brew July 10 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Nervous start to an important week
Good Morning,
The Non-Farm Payroll that came lower than expected but higher average earnings left traders without a clear picture. This was further increased by very low Chinese inflation Data over night.
Equities gave up ground and the USD lost value. Indexes are now trading at US 500: 4385 US TECH NAS 100 14970 GER40 15575.
The USD Index is currently at 102.50, EUSUSD 1.0950, Cable back at 1.28 and USDJPY 142.90.GBPJPY remains high at 183.
Gold rose to 1935 on Friday to fall to currently 1920, Silver is trading 23.00.
The US announced that it would restock the strategic oil reserves, weak Chinese Data weighed it down again. We traded 70.20 on Thursday, reached a high of 73.90 on Friday and are now at 73.33.
The elephant in the room remains interest rates, where we remain near the recent highs: US 2 year are 4.94% just below the important 5%, the 10 Year is 4.07%. EU 3.32% and 2.64%, UK is 5.38% and 4.64%. All massively inverted.
What will be the drivers from here?
- China Stimulus might be coming – there are also signs that the crackdown on Technology companies may be over. No clear impact from Yellens visit
- Nato Summit coming up
- Key US Data and Fed speakers are key, CPI on Wednesday, PPI Fiday
- Saturday was the day with most flights globally
- Dutch government collapses on immigration dispute.
- Koen published another great fundamental piece on Friday on calculating expected moves in an asset:
- Earning Season kicks off – With the higher rates, earnings need to be high to justify the valuations.
Whether you're an investor or a trader, understanding the expected move of an asset can provide valuable insights into market expectations and potential price fluctuations. By looking at options we get better insights on how the market anticipates current and future movements of any asset like stocks, etf's, indices and more
Trade safely.
Events this week:
Monday July 10
4 Fed Speakers (Barr, Daly, Mester & Bostic)
Tuesday July 11
De HICP& ZEW, UK Labor Data, Feds Williams speaks
Wednesday July 12
US CPI, Feds Barkin & Kashkari speak
Thursday July 13th
China Trade Data, UK GDP, FR CPI, US Initial Jobless Claims and PPI
Earnings: Pepsi&Delta
Friday July 14th
Sweden CPI, EU Trade Balance, US University of Michigan, Feds Walker speaks
Earnings: JP Morgan, Citi, Statestreet.. Blackrock
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
FPN3 will expire 11 Jul 2023 at 15:00 GMT
NK225M3 will expire 13 Jul 2023 at 06:15 GMT
CUSN3 will expire 14 Jul 2023 at 04:00 GMT