Morning Brew January 6 2023
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: First Key Data of the Year today
A much better than expected ADP National Employment number spooked traders yesterday , driving equities lower and the USD stronger – the Terminal Rate is now being traded at above 5% in June. US Indexes lost more than 1% but recovered overnight. The GER4o is trading at 14527 and could try to break the 14601 if we see risk on sentiment hold.
The USD Index rose to 105.30, GBPUSD fell to 1.1911, EURUSD 1.0515 and USDJPY 133.90.
Gold and Silver traded lower yesterday, Gold hit 1825 and Silver neared the 23 figure, currently we are up to trade at 1840 and 23.40. Oil rose off yesterdays lows as well and rose to 74.15 from 72.50.
Fed Speaker came in the wires with a little dovish comments that the money supply boded well for Inflation.
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc lost 30% to trade at 1.69 on news the company way considering options, including bankruptcy.
The Chinese Commerce Ministry announced it will actively study and implement measures to boost consumption
Today there are two bey events on the agenda:
- EU HICP as well as Consumer Confidence at 11:00,
- US Labor Data with a focus on the nonfarm payroll at 14:30.
- At 16:00 the ISM Nonmanufacturing PMI could be interesting if coming as a surprise.
EU Inflation is expected at 9.7% year on Year, Retail Sales at -3.3% and Economic Sentiment at 94.7.
The Nonfarm Payroll is expected at 200k with Private Payrolls adding 180, and average earnings are expected to have risen 0.4%. the Unemployment rate is seen at 3.7%.
Any strong deviation will move the market while the initial move is usually based on the NFP number.
Today is a holiday in Sweden, Finland, Poland, Greece, Cyprus, Slovakia, Croatia, Sri Lanka.