Morning BrewFebruary 2 2024

Good Morning

I will be off the next week, I wish you prosperous trading!

Yesterday, equities recovered many of the previous day`s losses, one reason being that while after Jerome Powells comments the likelihood of a rate cut in March fell, the overall picture did not really change, we are still seeing 145 basis points in cuts by December. Also, slightly higher than expected initial jobless claims raise hopes for a dovish Non-Farm Payroll today.

The Dow rose 1%, S&P 1.25% and the Nasdaq 1.30%. The US 500 is trading back at 4933, the US30 38500 an the US Tech 100 NAS 17505. The Ger40 takes another attempt to break above the 17k,  India`s Nifty 50 hits a new record.

Apple fell 3% in the aftermarket due to missing the sales target for iPhones, Meta gained 14% as earnings as well as revenue beat expectations and the company announced the first dividend. Amazon rose as much as 8% after the close.

Regional banks remain a cause of concern with NYCB's plummeted 45% in two days and the Regional Banking Index more than 7% lower.

10 Year Yields fell to 3.87 and the USD Index to 103.00 after fitting 103.80. EURUSD is 1.0880, Cable 1.2750 and USDJPY 146.40.

Gold is 2055 and Silver 23.17 Bitcoin 43k and Crude 74.08 int eh US Line.

Key event today will be the Nonfarm Payroll and the related unemployment rate at 14:30 today. The expectation is for a headline number of 180k the highest estimate is 290k and the lowest 120k, last month was 216k. The second look will go to the adjustment of last months number and also the unemployment rate expected at 3.8%.

Peter wrote on the Fed`s Options from here yesterday:

What are the Fed’s possible considerations on rate cuts?

Next week is fairly light on top data but there remain significant risks form earnings, surprises in data as well as geopolitical risks!

Trade safely!

Friday

- Data US Nonfarm Payrolls

- Earnings: Bristol-Myers Squibb, Chevron, Exxon Mobil