Morning Brew August 4 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Bank Of England up today and Earnings boost equities
The strong bullish sentiment in Equities continued after the brief pause after the End of July and the Nasdaq could add 2.6%, the S&P 1.56 and the Dow 1,29%. Earnings by Paypal and a buyback program by Moderna boosted sentiment along with a strong non-manufacturing PMI. Apple, Amazon and Meta added more than 4%. Teg GER40 rose to 13650.
China launched live-fire military drills around Taiwan after Nancy Pelosi’s visit. They are scheduled to last until Sunday and introduced sanctions against Taiwan but so far the reaction is more moderate than feared, let us hope that remains.
Yields are trading nervous on Data and the hawkish Fed Speakers, the 2 year traded a 20 basis point range and is now near the middle at 3.08.
The USD Index is near yesterday’s morning level at 106. 42, EURUSD at 1.0170 and GBPUSD at 1.2150. Gold and Silver see-sawed and are now just above the 20 and 1772. USDJPY seems to take a breather at 133.90.
The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates by the most since 1995, a hike of 50 basis points is priced in with a probability of 85% based on rate futures.
The newest FX poll by Reuters. 70% of the questioned analysts believe the USD has not yet peaked but most believe that to happen in the next six months.
Key driver for the overall sentiment are the strong earnings and strong fundamental data, hawkish Fed speakers cannot dampen the strong sentiment for long – it seems to be a bit of a FOMO rally. Watch the BOE today and the FOMC tomorrow will be the event of the week. Alibaba earinigs will be closely watched and our Strats team in Asia commented Mega cap platform companies are facing multiple headwinds, including the amended Anti-Monopoly Law in China
Key Economic Data this week:
Thursday DE Industrial Orders, Bank of England Rate Decision, US Jobs data,
Friday: DE Industrial Output, US Nonfarm Payroll
Thursday: Novo Nordisk, Credit Agricole, Merck, Bayer, Adidas, Beiersdorf, Toyota, SoftBank, Glencore, ING Groep, Eli Lilly, Alibaba, Amgen, ConocoPhillips, EOG Resources, Air Products and Chemicals, Block, DoorDash, Twilio
Friday: Canadian Natural Resources, Suncor Energy, Allianz, Deutsche Post, Naturgy Energy Group
Physically Settled Futures:
Live Cattle - Aug 2022 will expire 5th Aug at 15:00 GMT
LIVECATTLEAUG22 will expire 4th Aug at 15:00 GMT.