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Morning Brew August 21 2025
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Rotation ahead of Powell
Good Morning,
Heading into the Jackson Hole summit, we continue to see nervousness—why? It is Jerome Powell's final appearance at the summit as the head of the US Federal Reserve, while he is engaged in a significant battle with Donald Trump concerning his legacy and central bank independence. Trump just urged Fed Governor Lisa Cook to resign after mortgage fraud allegations . Powells speech is scheduled for 16:00 CET tomorrow.
On average, in the month after the Jackson Hole speech, 10-year yields have risen approximately 20 basis points, the USD Index has gained 1.4%, and the S&P 500 has lost 2%, according to Reuters data.
Inflation remains well above the Fed's target, and we have yet to see the full impact of the tariffs reflected in the data. On the other hand, employment has been weaker than expected, and Goldman Sachs is anticipating a further correction in the hiring statistics.
Which stance will Powell take? He faces a nervous market near all-time highs as we head into Jackson Hole, with the probability of a September cut standing at 80%.
Yesterday, tech stocks remained under pressure as the Nasdaq Index lost 0.65%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.3%, and the Dow Jones was essentially flat. Apple and Tesla fell by approximately 2%, Intel by 7%, Target by 7.7%, and Estée Lauder by 5%. Palantir, the star of the year, couldn't rebound and shed a further 1%, although it is still up more than 100% this year.
The USD Index moved little, currently trading at 98.30, while EUR/USD is at 1.1645, GBP/USD at 1.3450, and USD/JPY at 147.50.
Gold had an interesting day, initially dropping to find buyers at the 100-day moving average and then rising to the 50-day moving average. Silver dropped to the 36 handle only to test the 38 level hours later. Right now, gold stands at 3340 and silver at 37.90. Bitcoin is near 113k but Ethereum could gain to 4300.
We are awaiting data of limited significance today. Speculation about Powell's views on the market will dominate sentiment. Trade safely!
Thursday, August 21
- Global PMI
- US Initial Jobless Claims
- EU Consumer Confidence
- Earnings: Walmart, Zoom, Workday, Intuit
Friday, August 22
- Germany GDP
- UK Retail Sales
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