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Morning Brew August 17 2026
Good morning.
The latest headlines remain focused on geopolitics, oil, yields and AI. The US-Iran ceasefire expires today, Israel carried out a deadly strike in southern Lebanon, and new US sanctions on Iran are expected. Markets are also watching oil prices, UK data, the Fed rate debate, fresh headlines from the AI sector and the weather in Europe. Will traders stand aside in a data-poor week, or will we see new all-time highs in the indices? Wall Street ended last week quietly, with very light trading volumes. Around 9.6 billion shares changed hands on US exchanges, compared with a 20-session average of 17.4 billion. For the week, the S&P 500 rose 0.4%, the Dow fell 0.6% and the Nasdaq gained 0.1%.
European equities ended the week slightly lower. The Stoxx 600 slipped 0.4% on the week to 657.86, ending a four-week winning streak but staying close to record highs. On Friday, the FTSE 100 fell 0.2% to 10,750.11, with AstraZeneca and Antofagasta among the main drags. The DAX rose 0.5% to 26,440.31, led by Rheinmetall, which gained 3.2%.
Over the weekend, markets reduced the probability of a September Fed hike following softer US data, including weaker retail sales. Interest-rate futures now price the probability of a move next month at around 30%, down from 50 % Friday.
In FX, the USD Index is trading near 99.50, its lowest level since June, while 10-year Treasury yields are little changed around 4.68%. EUR/USD is at 1.1590, GBP/USD at 1.3550, USD/JPY at 159.10 and USD/CHF at 0.8115. Gold is around 4,400 and silver near 65.80.
Japan’s economy grew at a slower-than-expected pace in April-June, with softer household spending and business investment weighing on the numbers. Analysts pointed to mostly one-off factors, while the Iran war continued to cloud the confidence backdrop.
US President Donald Trump instructed the Pentagon to substantially reduce joint military exercises with South Korea, citing the cost of the drills and Seoul’s refusal to take part in actions against Iran.
In the Middle East, US envoys met Egyptian, Qatari and Turkish mediators in Cairo on Sunday in an effort to advance Washington’s Gaza peace plan. The talks took place as Israel continued airstrikes in Gaza. Iran called on the US to accept defeat, while Trump described Tehran as “very evil” and warned Americans to prepare for continued high fuel prices.
A diplomatic source said Hamas officials were present at some meetings held by mediators with Trump’s envoy Jared Kushner and Gaza envoy Nickolay Mladenov.
In technology, Anthropic is preparing for what could become one of the largest IPOs on record. Wall Street is reportedly looking further into the future than usual to value the AI company, focusing on revenue potential two years ahead.
Anthropic is projecting 2028 revenue of roughly USD 190 billion to USD 200 billion, according to people familiar with the company’s financials. That compares with a reported current revenue run rate of around USD 47 billion as of May.
Asian shares edged higher on Monday, led by Chinese stocks ahead of key economic data. Oil remains in focus after last week’s gains and continued uncertainty around the Gulf conflict.
The US dollar moved toward two-month lows after the recent soft data run. The latest retail-sales miss was one of the reasons markets reduced the probability of an imminent Fed hike.
Alphabet’s early investment in SpaceX has reportedly increased more than one hundredfold. A regulatory filing showed the Google parent’s stake was worth around USD 94 billion at the end of June. Alphabet invested USD 900 million in SpaceX in 2015 and is now the largest institutional shareholder after the company’s June IPO.
This week’s data calendar is relatively light outside the UK, where employment, inflation and retail sales are due. In the US, the FOMC minutes will be released on Wednesday. Markets will also continue to follow Middle East headlines, oil, AI-related news flow, European weather conditions and commodity prices.
COT update: Commodity buying accelerates as dollar positioning steadies
Monday, 17 August 2026
Macro: China Retail Sales , Canada CPI Empire Fed survey; NAHB housing market index.
global large-cap earnings focus.
Tuesday, 18 August 2026
Macro: UK Employment ZEW Import Prices, U.S. industrial production and capacity utilisation; pending home sales.
Corporate earnings: Home Depot.
Wednesday, 19 August 2026
Macro: UK CPI EI HICP FOMC minutes from the July meeting.
Central banks / speakers: FOMC minutes released at 20:00 CET.
Corporate earnings: Target and selected U.S. retailers.
Thursday, 20 August 2026
Macro: Japan Trade Balance U.S. initial jobless claims; Philadelphia Fed survey; Leading Economic Index.
Central banks / speakers: Fed balance sheet after the close
Corporate earnings: Walmart
Friday, 21 August 2026
Macro: Japan CPI , UK Retail Sales Flash S&P Global manufacturing and services PMIs for the U.S., euro area and UK.