Morning Brew August 11 2025

Good Morning,

This past week saw notable gains across major stock indices. The S&P 500 rose by 2.4%, the Dow Jones increased by 1.3%, and the Nasdaq surged by 3.9%. In Europe, the GER40 climbed 3.3%, while Switzerland’s SMI added 1.2%. Notably, the Nasdaq reached an all-time high, significantly influenced by Apple's stock, which soared 13% over the week.

The Nikkei Index quietly rose to an all time high…

A positive development for Nvidia emerged as the U.S. granted the company a license to export its H20 chips to China. This could potentially pave the way for new record highs for the chipmaker. Over the weekend the Financial Times reports that Nvidia and AMD agreed to a revenue share with the US Government in exchange for the export licenses. I am not sure if this is highway robbery or a smart business move…

In political developments, former President Donald Trump appeared unclear about the source of tariff payments. He asserted, “BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, LARGELY FROM COUNTRIES THAT HAVE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF THE UNITED STATES FOR MANY YEARS, LAUGHING ALL THE WAY, WILL START FLOWING INTO THE USA.”

Market concentration remains historically high, with the top 10 companies now accounting for more than 75% of the total market, the Goldman Sachs AI Leaders Basket is up 756% since ChatGPT’s launch in late 2022. That’s 122% per year, powered by semis, data centers, and infrastructure plays.

US Yields rise off the lows to 3.95 11 year and 4.27 for the 10`s, the USD Index remains low at 98.05. EURUSD is 1.1670, Cable 1.3470 and USDJOY 147.50. Gold and Silver give up some ground on the news that there will be no tariffs on Gold bars.

Bitcoin and Ethereum soar to 121k and 4200 respectively. 

President Donald Trump is set to replace Billy Long as commissioner of the Internal Revenue Service. Additionally, New Delhi has temporarily suspended plans to acquire new U.S. weapons and aircraft, as reported by three Indian officials.

Trump's meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled for Friday in Alaska. European leaders have cautiously welcomed this upcoming meeting, emphasizing the importance of continuing to pressure Moscow while safeguarding Ukrainian and European security interests.

Economists polled by Reuters expect the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July to have increased by 2.8% year-over-year. Investors are keenly watching whether Trump's import tariffs will result in higher prices.

The White House plans to issue an executive order addressing misinformation regarding gold tariffs, according to Reuters. It seems there was an oversight in not excluding gold bars from tariff impositions.

Looking ahead, the upcoming week is relatively light on scheduled events. However, significant attention will be directed towards the U.S. CPI and retail sales data, along with global political developments. Key issues include tariffs, the situation in Ukraine, and tensions in the Middle East. The escalating dispute between India and the U.S., coupled with the Russia-U.S. summit, raises questions about the inclusion of Ukraine in discussions.

Monday August 11

• Norway Denmark CPI

  Earnings: Barrick, GoPro,

  Tuesday August 12

• Australia Rate Decision
• UK Laber Market data
• ZEW,
• US CPI
  Speakers: Barkin, Schmid,

  Earnings: ON, 

   

  Wednesday August 13

• JP Corporate Goods
• DE HICP
• Speakers: Barkin, Golsbee,Bostic,

  Earnings: Marex, Cisco,

  Thursday August 14

• UK GDP
• France CPI
• EU GDP
• US Initital Jobless Claims , PPI Machine Manufacturing
• Speakers: Barkin,
  Earnings: First Majestic, JD.com. JohnDeere

Friday August 15

• Planned Meeting Trump/Putin in Alaska
• China Retail sales
• US Retail Sales, University of Michigan