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Technical Update - Tesla established bullish trend with 10-15% upside potential, possibly more
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Tesla closed on 26 June above 191.08, thereby establishing a bullish trend in the short term.
The bullish trend is supported by positive sentiment on the strength indicator RSI. The resistance at around 198.87 was subsequently tested, but so far, Tesla has failed to close above it. A daily close above this level is likely to push Tesla to test the key strong resistance at around 207.83.
The declining 200 daily moving average will add to the strength of that resistance level. A daily close above 207.83 paves the road higher towards 225–226.
Medium-term (weekly chart), Tesla has been in a bearish trend (as indicated by the lower lows and lower highs on the chart) for about a year by now. A weekly close above 205.60 will establish a bullish trend also in the medium term.
However, there is strong overhead resistance with the 55 and the 100 weekly moving averages coming down, putting pressure on the share price. Just above that, there is the 200 moving average, currently around 227.80.
However, if RSI, which is still currently showing negative sentiment, closes above the 60 threshold, it will support the bullish outlook for Tesla. If that scenario plays out, there is further upside potential to around 265.
If Tesla fails to close above 205.60, the share price is likely to slide back. But to neutralize the bullish trend, a daily close below 176.92 is required.
A close below 167.75 will reverse the bullish trend to bearish with downside potential to 110–100. If weekly RSI fails to close back above the 60 threshold, the potential medium-term bullish scenario is in jeopardy and likely to be reversed.