Market complacency challenged by latest blitz of Trump administration moves.

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Today’s Links

Chance to listen in on live webinar on outlook across markets.
I will host with Chief Economist at CME Group Erik Norland on the outlook across markets. Find the sign-up here.

Solid state battery in production now - is it for real?
The whimsically named Donut Lab is claiming the world’s first production solid state battery, one that has been put into a crazy Verge “hubless” electric motorbike and is claiming a stunning range. The batteries may debut soon in an EV car as well. Is this company’s tech for real? The Verge takes a stab at finding out - and it sounds inconclusive - stay tuned!

Reasons for near term caution, longer term optimism?
Macrovoices.com podcast with Darius Dale of 42 Macro outlines the case for near term caution even if constructive on the outlook for a fiscal pickup later this year and into 2027, also discusses the role gold is playing when bonds don’t do anything to raise the robustness of portfolios at risk-off moments.

Civil war risks in Europe?
I thought this was click-bait when I first read the headline this morning in a Danish newspaper, but the story actually stems from rather soft-spoken and very much not particularly self-promotional historian and academic David Betz, who was interviewed by Danish journalist Paul Høi (for the Danish-speaking audience) and some months ago by the Triggernometry crew on the ingredients and historical parallels that point to the risk of partisan strife and even a civil conflict in European countries.

Chart of the Day - Revolution Medicines (RVMD)

I overstated on the podcast how certain a deal might be for the biotech company Revolution Medicines - the quoted figures were according to FT, whose sources suggest that Merck and possibly AbbVie may be vying to bid USD 28-32 billion for Revolution Medicines. The company closed Friday with a market cap of about USD 23 billion after a wild rise of about 50% last week, and a doubling from September levels before that. Revolution Medicines is a biotech company with no revenue, but has a promising drug candidate for treating common but difficult cancers to treat. The patent for Merck’s Keytruda, a USD 30 billion in sales per year blockbuster and the world’s highest revenue drug, runs out in 2028.