Morning Brew March 29 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Quarter End Buying - Will it hold?
Risk sentiment is strong as representatives from Ukraine and Russia are scheduled to meet in Turkey during the day and it seems hopes are high despite fighting continuing and the Ukrainian side firmly stating "We are not trading people, land or sovereignty."
Joe Biden presented his budget yesterday and - Shanghai -China's most populous city- tightened it`s COVID-19 lockdown further
US are trading higher at 35k for the US30 , the US500 at 4580 and the USTech100 at 15000. The GER40 has breached the initial resistance and is trading at 14580.
EURUSD and GBPUSD are trading at 1.0980 and 1.3087. USDJPY breached 123 Gold and Silver treat along with oil to 1923, 24.90 and 111.5 (UK) Bitcoin rose to 47600 and the Vix fell to below 20.
Tesla jumped 8% on saying it was looking to undertake a stock split.
Plantronics jumped more than 50 after a takeover bid by HP, Shares of HP declined 2.7%.
It seems like the market is looking for a proper Quarter-End Rally but it will to a large degree depend on the negotiations in Ukraine and there could be spikes in energy as the fronts between Russia and the West on the payment terms for Russian Energy seems to harden. Russia said it would insist on payment in Rouble from April the G7 so far refuses.
Key Data today:
10:30 UK Mortgage Data from the
16:00 US Consumer Confidence
Latest Market Insights
Q4 Outlook 2022: Winter is coming
- Winter is coming to the financial markets as central banks are tightening their grip. How spring will look is still a question.
European energy crisis: it will get worse before it gets betterThe winter in Europe will be tough, but whether the result is political chaos or sustainable, innovative solutions is still undecided.
A difficult and volatile quarter awaitsAs the year draws to an end, commodities continue to be at centre stage of the world with growth pockets political uncertainty.
The bright side: crises drive innovationThe positive spin on crises is that they come with solutions. It is worrisome that deglobalisation may be a response to this crisis.
Green transformation in China: renewable energy and beyondGoing green, China needs to span numerous energy sources to ensure stability, as every source comes with a challenge.
Asia: Intermittent solutions, but a faster renewable adoption curveAsian energy supply is being squeezed. This and the adoption of renewables may change the investment sentiment in the region.
FX: A Fed thaw needed to deliver a sustained USD turn lowerThe US Dollar can keep momentum when the Federal Reserve continues to tighten, leaving the rest to play to their drum.
Autumn can become ugly for equities and bond holders. Comfort for Dollar longsTechnical analysis suggests that equities could face a tough Q4 as could fixed income. US Dollar positions could provide some upside.
The next stock market sector to watch, with stocks going nuclearAs the world scrambles to find affordable, sustainable energy, nuclear is getting attention from politicians and investors alike.
The crypto space is getting cold when the hype disappearsCryptocurrencies face a winter of their own as retail investors and governments are asking tough questions.