Morning Brew March 29 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Quarter End Buying - Will it hold?
Risk sentiment is strong as representatives from Ukraine and Russia are scheduled to meet in Turkey during the day and it seems hopes are high despite fighting continuing and the Ukrainian side firmly stating "We are not trading people, land or sovereignty."
Joe Biden presented his budget yesterday and - Shanghai -China's most populous city- tightened it`s COVID-19 lockdown further
US are trading higher at 35k for the US30 , the US500 at 4580 and the USTech100 at 15000. The GER40 has breached the initial resistance and is trading at 14580.
EURUSD and GBPUSD are trading at 1.0980 and 1.3087. USDJPY breached 123 Gold and Silver treat along with oil to 1923, 24.90 and 111.5 (UK) Bitcoin rose to 47600 and the Vix fell to below 20.
Tesla jumped 8% on saying it was looking to undertake a stock split.
Plantronics jumped more than 50 after a takeover bid by HP, Shares of HP declined 2.7%.
It seems like the market is looking for a proper Quarter-End Rally but it will to a large degree depend on the negotiations in Ukraine and there could be spikes in energy as the fronts between Russia and the West on the payment terms for Russian Energy seems to harden. Russia said it would insist on payment in Rouble from April the G7 so far refuses.
Key Data today:
10:30 UK Mortgage Data from the
16:00 US Consumer Confidence
Latest Market Insights
Outrageous Predictions 2023: The War Economy
- The constantly growing global need for energy drives the world's richest to huddle up and launch a R&D project in a size the world hasn't seen since the Manhattan Project gave the US the first atomic bomb.
French President Macron resignsThe political stalemate in France and the rise of Marie Le Pen following the 2022 elections corners President Macron, forcing him to give up on politics and resign from his position. At least for now.
Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandateAs markets and central banks realise that the idea that inflation is transitory is wrong, and that prices will remain higher for longer, gold is sent through the roof, hitting a price tag of USD 3,000
EU Army forces EU down path to full unionWith continued challenges in the region and a US military that isn't aggressively enacting its former role as global policeman, the European Union agrees to create its own armed forces, bringing the whole region closer.
A country agrees to ban all meat production by 2030In an effort to become one of the global leaders on the path to net-zero emissions, one country decides to not only put a heavy tax on meat, but to ban domestic production entirely.
UK holds UnBrexit referendumFollowing a recession and domestic pressure, the United Kingdom is thrown into political turmoil that will end with a vote to wind back Brexit.
Widespread price controls are introduced to cap official inflationHistory tells us that with the war economy comes rationing and price controls. And this time is no different, as policymakers introduce strict price controls that lead to a range of unintended consequences.
OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve assetSanctions against Russia have caused widespread turmoil due to US Dollar moves in countries across the globe that don't consider the US an ally. To relieve themselves from this, they leave the IMF and create a new reserve asset.
USDJPY fixed to the USD at 200 as Japan overhauls financial systemFollowing the challenges that faced the Japanese Yen in 2022, the Bank of Japan attempts to keep the currency from sliding. Unsuccessful on the long-term, Japan will launch a reset of its entire financial system.
Tax haven ban kills private equityWith the war economy comes an increased focus on national interests and sovereign nations' ability to assert themselves. In that regard, the OECD countries turn their attention on tax havens and pull the big guns out, banning them altogether.