Market Quick Take – 13 February 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: Tech fears hit U.S. stocks, Europe slipped on profit-taking, Asia was mixed as Hong Kong fell and China steadied.
• Volatility: CPI catalyst, short-term IV elevated, skew high
• Digital Assets: Range-bound BTC/ETH, IBIT/ETHA lower, crypto equities weak
• Fixed Income: US Treasuries served as a safe haven, surging and sending yields lower as equities sold off.
• Currencies: JPY strength eases, USD surges on safe haven demand.
• Commodities: Broad weakness as AI-driven risk-off tone grips markets; grains a notable exception
• Macro events: US January CPI

Macro headlines

• US existing home sales fell 8.4% in January 2026 to 3.91 million, below the expected 4.18 million and the lowest since September 2024. Unsold inventory dropped to 1.22 million units. Despite improved affordability from wage gains and lower mortgage rates, supply is low. Dr. Lawrence Yun noted weather impacts cloud the decline's causes.
• Japan and the US are far apart on what projects the USD 550 billion investment vehicle agreed in the US-Japan trade deal should be funded first, according to Japanese Trade Minister Ryosei Akazawa. He said that there is no decision yet even on when the projects might be determined or announced as negotiations continue ahead of a visit to the US by Japan PM Sanae Takaichi in March.
• The UK economy grew 0.1% in Q4 2025, below the 0.2% forecast. Production increased 1.2% and manufacturing 0.9%, while services stagnated and construction fell 2.1%. Annually, GDP rose 1.0%, below the 1.2% expected, with 2025 growth at 1.3%, up from 1.1% in 2024.
• Germany's current account surplus was €16.1 billion in December 2025, nearly unchanged from €16.2 billion a year prior. The goods surplus fell to €8.6 billion due to higher import growth than exports, and primary income surplus dropped. The services deficit widened, while the secondary income deficit decreased. The annual surplus for 2025 fell sharply to €197.4 billion from €251.5 billion in 2024.
• US President Trump is said to be planning to scale back some of his steel and aluminium tariffs, according to the FT.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0730 – Switzerland Jan. CPI
1000 – Eurozone Q4 Employment
1330 – US Jan. CPI

Earnings this week

• Today: Safran, Enbridge, NatWest, Tokio Marine Holdings, Japan Post Bank, TC Energy, Cameco

Earnings next week

• Monday: BHP Group
• Tuesday: Medtronic, Palo Alto Networks, Cadence Design Systems, Republic Services, Antofagasta, Vulcan Materials, EQT, DTE Energy, FirstEnergy, Devon Energy
• Wednesday: Analog Devices, Booking Holdings, Glencore, Carvana, BAE Systems, DoorDash, Moody’s, Orange
• Thursday: Walmart, Alibaba, Nestle, Airbus, Rio Tinto, Deere, Newmont, Zurich Insurance, Constellation Energy, Southern Company, Quanta Services, Targa Resources
• Friday: Air Liquide, Warner Brothers Discovery, Anglogold Ashanti, Ango American, Danone

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.3% to 49,451.98, the S&P 500 dropped 1.6% to 6,832.76, and the Nasdaq Composite slid 2.0% to 22,597.15. Investors rotated away from tech and transports on renewed “AI disruption” worries, while waiting for Friday’s January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which economists expected to cool to about 2.5% year on year for both headline and core. Cisco fell 12.3% on a margin miss, AppLovin sank 19.7% despite results, and Dell lost 9.1% after Lenovo flagged memory tightness, while Equinix rose 10.4% on a strong revenue outlook tied to AI data centres.
• Europe: STOXX Europe 600 fell 0.5% to 618.52 and the FTSE 100 slipped 0.7% to 10,402.44, as investors locked in gains after a record run even while earnings kept coming. Deal and guidance headlines drove the tape: Schroders closed up almost 29.0% after agreeing a £9.9 billion takeover by Nuveen, while Dutch payments group Adyen dropped 21.9% after a weak update. Logistics group DSV fell 10.5% on a softer profit outlook, while Legrand gained 3.0% after lifting profitability targets. Markets now looked to more earnings and the U.S. inflation print for the next risk signal.
• Asia: Asia traded mixed as global tech jitters met holiday-thinned positioning. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.9% to 27,032.54 ahead of Lunar New Year holidays, with Lenovo down 4.6% and NetEase off 4.1% after results disappointed, while Alibaba eased 0.9% despite a louder push on AI products. Japan’s Nikkei 225 finished flat (0.0%) at 57,639.84 after touching 58,000 intraday, with Shiseido jumping 15.8% on a strong profit forecast and Honda falling 3.5% after a softer update. Mainland China was steadier, with the Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 4,134.02.

Volatility

• Volatility remains elevated as investors digest the latest U.S. inflation data and reassess the rate outlook. The VIX closed at 20.82 on 12 February, while short-dated measures such as VIX1D (21.51) and VIX9D (19.80) show that near-term event risk is still being priced. At the same time, the Cboe SKEW index at 142.50 signals continued demand for downside protection, suggesting portfolios remain defensively positioned even after the recent pullback.
• SPX expected move (weekly expiry): options pricing implies roughly ±65 points, or about ±0.95%, into this week’s expiry.
• 0DTE skew check (today’s expiry): mild upside skew, with call implied volatility around 6,835 trading above comparable puts, indicating some positioning for a bounce into the close.

Digital Assets

• Digital assets continue to trade in line with broader risk sentiment. Bitcoin is holding near $66,100 and Ethereum around $1,930, while higher-beta tokens such as Solana (~$78) and XRP (~$1.35) remain under pressure. The tone is cautious rather than panicked, but momentum has clearly softened following stronger U.S. data and reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts.
• In listed markets, the pressure is more visible. IBIT (-3.2%) and ETHA (-2.0%) are lower on the session, while crypto-linked equities such as Coinbase (-7.9%) and MicroStrategy (-2.4%) are seeing sharper declines. That divergence suggests equity investors are trimming exposure more aggressively than spot holders.
• ETF flows remain the next key signal. Recent reported data showed notable net outflows from both Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, reinforcing the defensive tone. A stabilisation or return to inflows would likely be needed to shift sentiment back toward accumulation.

Fixed Income

• US Treasury yields fell Thursday on signs that the treasury market is serving as a safe haven as risk sentiment was very weak in equities. The benchmark 2-year yield dropped back almost five basis points to 3.47% and the benchmark 10-year yield dropped six basis points to the 4.11%, trading south of 4.10% Thursday for the firsts time since early December. Today the US reports CPI data from January.
• US high yield debt came under considerable pressure Thursday on widespread weak sentiment, sending the Bloomberg indicator we track of high yield spreads to US treasuries 12 basis points wider to match the highest of the year at 275 basis points.
• Japan’s government bond yields steadied Friday, as the stronger JPY took anticipation of BoJ tightening urgency slightly lower, while the longest dated JGB yields ended Friday slightly higher after their recent plunge.

Commodities

• The Bloomberg Commodity Index is heading for a modest weekly decline of around 1%, as Thursday’s AI-disruption-driven risk-off tone dented risk appetite and triggered broad risk reduction from systematic and automated trading models. Losses have been most pronounced in energy, led by natural gas (-8%) and gasoil (-3%). Industrial and precious metals have also softened, with copper, aluminium, silver and platinum trading lower, while gold is little changed, supported by already light positioning and continued underlying demand. In contrast, grains are enjoying a strong week, up around 2% on broad sector gains led by wheat and soybean oil. Elsewhere, cocoa extended its sharp decline, falling 13% on the week and roughly 40% year to date.
• Gold and silver are trading higher after suffering their biggest one-day declines in a week, part of a broader Wall Street selloff driven by concerns over AI’s impact on corporate earnings. The move has been amplified by thin liquidity conditions, with traders still rattled following the historic rout at the beginning of the month.
• Silver once again bore the brunt of the pressure, as near-term technicals remain soft and Chinese traders scale back activity ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, which will shut markets for more than a week.
• Oil headed for its first back-to-back weekly decline of the year amid risk-off markets, glut worries and an Iranian risk premium that continues to ebb and flow amid prolonged US–Iran talks, with Brent trading below USD 68 having once again failed to gain a foothold above USD 70 earlier in the week.
• Wheat futures climbed to a three-month high, supported by concerns over the US winter wheat crop and fund short covering after many months of elevated bearish positioning.

Currencies

• Yen strength eased in Asian on Friday as the US dollar firmed across the board, taking USDJPY off a test of the recent lows near 152.30 to well above 153.00, while other JPY crosses also bounced, including EURJPY’s rise to 181.70+ after a 181.22 low Friday.
• The USD rebounded Thursday and overnight, perhaps showing signs of safe haven seeking as risk sentiment was under considerable pressure. EURUSD saw little volatility and only dipped slightly, but GBPUSD dipped back to under 1.3600 at the lows in Asia’s Friday session after a 1.3671 high Thursday, while the strongest G10 currency of late, the Aussie, was under broad pressure, pushed back to almost 0.7050 at the lows Friday after a high just short of 0.7150 on Thursday.

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