Key points:
- Trump threatened 10% tariffs from Feb 1 on goods from eight European countries - Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and the UK, tied to the demand that the US be allowed to buy Greenland.
- Europe is moving in two lanes: leaders are trying to de-escalate, while EU officials also discuss retaliation options, including the EU’s Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI).
- Markets have treated this as US policy/institutional risk, not a clean “sell Europe” story: the USD weakened, safe havens outperformed, and gold and silver surged to record highs
What happened?
Over the weekend, President Trump threatened a new round of tariffs on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and the UK, with reporting flagging 10% from February 1 and a possible step-up later.
The tariff threat is linked to the US being allowed to buy Greenland, which makes this less about trade balances and more about geopolitical bargaining. That matters because the outcome set is wider and less linear (negotiate, delay, escalate), and markets tend to price headline gap risk aggressively when politics drives the timetable.
Europe is trying to avoid escalation, but it is also signalling it will not be passive.
- EU ambassadors agreed they should push harder to dissuade the US, and European leaders have scheduled further coordination, including a summit later this week.
- At the same time, officials are discussing retaliation options, including reactivating a large suspended tariff package and potentially using the EU’s Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI), which is designed for situations where the EU feels it is being coerced.
Key dates/headline catalysts to keep in mind: or what to watch
- Tariff start risk flagged as February 1.
- Davos: Trump is due to speak Wednesday, a focal point for any walk-back or escalation language.
- Thursday EU summit: Does the EU stick to tariff retaliation first, or seriously move toward ACI mechanics?
How markets are reacting?
- The USD has weakened, while demand has rotated into classic havens like JPY and CHF, which fits a “US uncertainty” narrative more than a Europe-only shock.
- Gold and silver are the loudest signal. Both hit fresh record highs on Monday, with spot gold around the mid-$4,600s and silver near the low-$90s after touching new peaks intraday.
- Risk assets looked fragile in thinner liquidity (US markets shut for MLK Day), which can exaggerate moves and then mean-revert when full liquidity returns.
Where to from here? Three scenarios that map to positioning
You do not need to predict the next headline. You need a framework that tells you what to do as probabilities change. The scenarios and probabilities below are the author’s opinion for discussion purposes, not a forecast or a recommendation.
- Base case (50–60%): The threat is mostly leverage, negotiations follow, and the final outcome is a partial climbdown or delay. In this scenario, you should keep hedges light but present, because the cost of protection can be high if the news flow cools quickly.
- Adverse case (30–40%): The 10% tariffs begin on February 1 and Europe retaliates modestly. In this scenario, investors could raise protection on Europe risk, lean more into quality and defensives, and reduce exposure to Europe’s export-sensitive beta.
- Tail case (10%): Retaliation widens into services, procurement, or capital measures, and the rift becomes structural rather than episodic. In this scenario, investors may assume correlations rise and that “diversification by geography” helps less, so you want explicit tail hedges and safe-haven ballast.
Even if the immediate tariff threat gets negotiated down, the structural risk is that fragmentation keeps rising, with more politicised trade, more conditional supply chains, and higher policy risks for companies and investors.
How to position
(For information purposes only — examples of instruments traders can use, not recommendations.)
1) Precious metals: trade the uncertainty premium, but respect crowded momentum
- Base case: With gold and silver at fresh record highs, the metals are acting as the market’s preferred hedge for policy uncertainty and confidence risk. That can stay supported as long as the story remains about uncertainty and policy risk, not just growth momentum.
- Key risk: After record highs, metals can be vulnerable to sharp pullbacks if de-escalation headlines hit or if real yields jump, so chasing spot without defined risk can be painful.
Instruments (examples):
- XAUUSD (Gold) / XAGUSD (Silver): These are the cleanest expressions of the uncertainty hedge.
- Gold/silver miners: These add torque, but they also add equity beta and can lag if equities wobble.
2) FX: trade the “US uncertainty” channel
Base bias: If the headlines keep deteriorating, the market may continue to express risk aversion through JPY and CHF strength, while the USD does not reliably behave as the automatic hedge in a “US policy risk” tape.
Key risks: If the rhetoric cools quickly, the market can snap back into “normal mode,” with USD rebounding and FX volatility compressing.
Instruments (examples):
- USDCHF / USDJPY: These are cleaner ways to express safe-haven demand. It’s worth noting that JPY has its own domestic headline risk around Japan’s snap election dynamics, so USDJPY can be more two-way than USDCHF at times.
- EURUSD: This is the key gauge for whether EUR can stay resilient amid broader USD weakness. The question is whether EUR can keep holding up if tensions move from “threat” to “implementation.”
- EURGBP: This can be useful if GBP remains the cleaner risk-expression relative to EUR, especially because the tariff list is not “all of Europe,” which can leave EUR trading more like a regional benchmark while GBP absorbs more of the idiosyncratic risk.
3) Equities: move from “index beta” to “dispersion”
Base bias: If tariffs remain a live threat, Europe is likely to trade with higher dispersion, both on a country and sector map. Indices linked to the countries named in the tariff list can react faster on headlines, while “not on the list” markets can look steadier at first—mainly because they have less direct tariff overhang. Likewise, sector winners and losers matter more than the index level. Export-sensitive cyclicals tend to carry more headline risk, while defensives and “geopolitical premium” sectors can hold up better.
Key risks: “Not on the list” does not mean “immune.” If this turns into a broader EU–US standoff, correlations rise and the safer-looking markets can still get dragged, just with a lag. If the situation de-escalates quickly, the market can rotate back into broad beta and punish crowded defensives, while exporters rebound sharply.
Instruments (examples):
- Core Europe beta (broad hedge / broad view):
- EU50 (Eurozone large caps) is a clean way to hedge or express “Europe risk” without picking a country.
- GER40 is useful when you think the tariff story hits Europe through exports and global cyclicals.
- UK100 can be a separate expression when UK-specific risk or relative resilience matters.
- Countries named in the tariff threat (more headline-sensitive):
- FRA40 helps if you think France becomes a political and policy focal point within the EU response.
- NETH25 helps if you want exposure to a trade-sensitive, open economy and ports/logistics links.
- SWE30 helps if you want a cleaner “Nordics in the crosshairs” expression (often higher beta to global trade sentiment).
- NOR25 can be useful if you want the Nordics angle with an added sensitivity to energy risk sentiment.
- Not on the tariff list (potential “relative shelter,” with caveats):
- SWISS20 can behave more defensively in risk-off, but it can also be influenced by CHF strength.
- SPAIN35 may be less directly targeted, but it can still be sensitive to Europe growth and financial conditions.
- Sector positioning: lean into dispersion
- If the news flow stays tense, traders often prefer sectors that can benefit from a geopolitical risk premium. Defence is the obvious candidate, because a harder geopolitical backdrop can keep spending expectations supported.
- At the same time, defensives such as healthcare, utilities, and staples often act as “portfolio shock absorbers” when cyclicals are under pressure.
- By contrast, export-heavy cyclicals (industrials, autos, parts of semis/capex supply chains) can be where the tariff headline risk shows up first.
- Simple relative setups to watch (country + regional dispersion):
- EU50 vs US500 shows whether Europe is lagging the US as the risk premium rises.
- GER40 vs EU50 shows whether exporter-heavy Germany is underperforming the broader Eurozone on tariff risks.
- FRA40 vs SWISS20 is a quick “EU politics risk vs defensive Switzerland” check.
- SWE30 vs EU50 is a useful read on whether the Nordics are being singled out by headlines.
- Defence vs broad Europe is a useful way to monitor whether the market is paying up for the geopolitical premium.
4) Rates: use yield moves to judge whether risk is US-driven
- Base case: If markets treat this as US institutional/policy uncertainty, you can see safe-haven demand show up in rates even when the USD is soft. Watching rates helps distinguish “risk-off” from “USD down for other reasons.”
- Key risk: Rates can swing hard on unrelated catalysts (inflation prints, central bank speak), so it is easy to mis-attribute moves to tariffs alone.
Instruments (examples):
- US Treasury futures/CFDs: Useful if you want a clean hedge against a growth/risk shock.
- Bund futures/CFDs: Useful to express Europe growth fear or safe-haven demand inside Europe.
- Spread watch: The US vs Germany yield spread is a useful “regime indicator” for whether the shock is being priced as US risk or Europe risk.
5) Volatility: hedge the risk of sudden moves
- Base case: When politics drives markets, prices can jump overnight. It often makes sense to use tools that limit downside upfront, instead of relying on stop-losses that can be skipped in a gap.
- Key risk: If news flow calms down, hedges can lose value quickly, so timing and sizing matter.
Instruments (examples):
- Index options on EU50 / GER40 / FRA40 / US500: Options can cap losses by design and are useful around headline risk.
- VIX-linked exposure: This can rise when fear rises, but it can also fall fast when markets relax.
Disclaimer: FX and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 61% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading FX and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how FX and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
