Quarterly Outlook
Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Palladium under pressure
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: Palladium is under renewed pressure as weak auto sales and the US-China trade dispute remove focus from tight supply. Key support at $1,316/oz stands in the way of potential further weakness towards $1,225.
The current palladium weakness is once again raising questions about how much we can read into contango and backwardation in markets where liquidity literally only exists at the front end of the curve. The speculative buying earlier this year drove up the backwardation, thereby triggering talk of supply shortages. Now the opposite is happening because speculative investors are bailing out. The fundamental outlook has not gone through such a dramatic transformation in such a short period of time.
My take is that the market is likely to remain tight but that headline risks have triggered a reality check among speculative investors. Fundamentals remain supportive but given the distance it travelled earlier in the year, a correction – while still being in an uptrend – can take palladium down to $1,225/oz or even $1,132/oz.
Holding onto support at $1,316/oz, however, will send a signal that the latest setback was nothing more than a weak correction within a strong uptrend.
My take is that the market is likely to remain tight but that headline risks have triggered a reality check among speculative investors. Fundamentals remain supportive but given the distance it travelled earlier in the year, a correction – while still being in an uptrend – can take palladium down to $1,225/oz or even $1,132/oz.
Holding onto support at $1,316/oz, however, will send a signal that the latest setback was nothing more than a weak correction within a strong uptrend.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
After the chaos of Q2, the quarter ahead should get a bit more clarity on how Trump 2.0 is impacting... -
Quarterly Outlook
Upending the global order at blinding speed
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy