Another ugly manufacturing data

Macro

Christopher Dembik

Head of Macro Analysis

Summary:  The US ISM manufacturing big miss is a worrying signal for the economy, but the only data that really matters for Q3 GDP will be the upcoming non-manufacturing ISM on Thursday.


The latest manufacturing ISM for September is out. There is only one word coming to my mind to describe it: UGLY. The headline index did not rebound, as expected by the market, but it felt further into contraction, at 47.8, which is the lowest level since 2009. It is moving way below its long-term historical mean of 52.9. All the major sub-components are oriented south. New orders, production, imports, exports and employment are all contracting.

Given the figures released for August and September, US industrial recession is likely to materialize in coming months. It is the reflection of a very depressed global manufacturing outlook, but also of a sharp decrease of new exports orders due to the strength of the USD, and a big drop of Boeing’s deliveries.

That being said, it is obviously a worrying signal for the US economy, but it should not be overstated in its significance. It should be reminded to everyone that the ISM manufacturing is a coincident indicator and it does not track so well GDP growth.

The only data that really matters for Q3 GDP will be the non-manufacturing ISM on Thursday. As household consumption represents about 70% of the US economy, it is clearly a much better gauge to assess the real state of economic activity. It will also provide a first answer to one of the most important questions that clients and traders are asking: Is manufacturing weakness spilling over into services? If the answer is yes, then consider a 25bps rate cut is a done deal in December, and at least another rate cut is highly likely in Q1 2020. In this context, it would be extremely complicated for the Fed to keep talking about “insurance cut”.

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.