Another ugly manufacturing data Another ugly manufacturing data Another ugly manufacturing data

Another ugly manufacturing data

Christopher Dembik

Head of Macroeconomic Research

Summary:  The US ISM manufacturing big miss is a worrying signal for the economy, but the only data that really matters for Q3 GDP will be the upcoming non-manufacturing ISM on Thursday.

The latest manufacturing ISM for September is out. There is only one word coming to my mind to describe it: UGLY. The headline index did not rebound, as expected by the market, but it felt further into contraction, at 47.8, which is the lowest level since 2009. It is moving way below its long-term historical mean of 52.9. All the major sub-components are oriented south. New orders, production, imports, exports and employment are all contracting.

Given the figures released for August and September, US industrial recession is likely to materialize in coming months. It is the reflection of a very depressed global manufacturing outlook, but also of a sharp decrease of new exports orders due to the strength of the USD, and a big drop of Boeing’s deliveries.

That being said, it is obviously a worrying signal for the US economy, but it should not be overstated in its significance. It should be reminded to everyone that the ISM manufacturing is a coincident indicator and it does not track so well GDP growth.

The only data that really matters for Q3 GDP will be the non-manufacturing ISM on Thursday. As household consumption represents about 70% of the US economy, it is clearly a much better gauge to assess the real state of economic activity. It will also provide a first answer to one of the most important questions that clients and traders are asking: Is manufacturing weakness spilling over into services? If the answer is yes, then consider a 25bps rate cut is a done deal in December, and at least another rate cut is highly likely in Q1 2020. In this context, it would be extremely complicated for the Fed to keep talking about “insurance cut”.


Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (
- Analysis Disclaimer (
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000

Contact Saxo

Select region


The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.